***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 13.4 14.7 18.1 2.9 88.9 84.2 10.9 11.9 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 13.5 14.6 17.2 2.5 86.7 81.6 10.9 12.0 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 15.7 16.6 17.7 2.3 84.5 80.0 13.2 14.2 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 11.1 12.2 15.1 2.3 86.1 83.1 8.3 9.4 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 12.2 12.9 15.8 2.1 82.7 79.2 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 11.1 11.5 13.0 2.0 83.2 81.1 9.1 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 13.6 14.6 17.5 2.6 87.9 83.2 11.3 12.2 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 6.9 7.6 13.2 2.0 83.9 81.1 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 13.3 13.8 15.8 2.0 82.3 79.3 11.1 11.9 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 13.0 13.6 14.1 2.1 84.0 81.0 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 12.5 12.7 15.1 1.6 76.7 74.6 10.6 11.4 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 10.9 11.4 14.2 1.9 81.6 79.3 9.0 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 87 13 100 10.9 11.4 13.3 0.9 65.7 64.6 9.9 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 13.7 14.1 14.9 1.6 77.7 74.7 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 13.8 14.3 17.0 2.0 83.9 81.8 12.1 12.8 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 13.2 13.3 14.2 1.3 73.0 71.3 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 18 82 100 13.8 14.8 16.7 2.3 86.0 81.3 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 11.9 12.4 13.1 1.7 80.2 77.2 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 13.4 14.4 17.3 2.3 85.6 80.4 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 7.9 8.3 11.3 1.7 79.8 77.4 5.7 6.6 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 12.9 13.5 16.8 2.0 82.2 78.7 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 12.8 13.7 16.9 2.2 85.4 80.2 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 12.8 13.6 17.0 2.0 81.6 77.4 10.6 11.6 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 13.1 13.5 15.1 1.7 79.7 76.4 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 13.5 14.6 17.3 2.8 88.0 83.5 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 11.8 11.8 12.6 1.2 70.0 68.6 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 14.6 16.4 17.7 3.0 89.1 84.5 10.9 12.4 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 11.6 12.1 15.3 1.9 82.1 79.7 9.8 10.5 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 10.9 11.5 12.4 1.8 80.9 78.0 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 14.0 15.2 17.7 2.6 87.1 82.1 11.3 12.4 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------