***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.6 15.3 0.9 64.5 59.1 10.8 11.7 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.3 14.7 0.7 62.2 57.4 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 12.6 14.5 15.3 0.7 63.2 58.2 12.8 13.8 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.7 12.8 0.9 66.6 60.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.1 13.1 0.6 61.7 57.2 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 10.6 10.5 11.0 0.9 67.2 61.3 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.6 14.9 0.8 63.9 58.6 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 5.9 6.1 10.7 0.5 59.7 56.2 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.5 13.2 0.7 63.2 58.2 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.8 12.1 11.5 0.6 62.4 57.5 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 9.6 11.4 12.6 0.5 59.5 55.9 9.8 10.9 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 8.2 10.0 11.7 0.6 60.5 57.1 8.4 9.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 8.9 10.8 11.4 0.6 61.5 57.1 9.1 10.1 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.5 12.8 0.5 60.2 55.9 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 13.2 13.3 14.6 1.0 69.7 63.5 11.1 12.1 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.5 12.5 12.1 0.7 62.8 58.2 10.6 11.7 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.6 14.3 0.6 61.1 56.3 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.8 10.8 0.6 62.2 57.3 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.3 14.7 0.6 61.0 56.6 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.7 8.8 0.4 57.7 54.8 5.1 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.7 12.1 14.4 0.7 63.1 58.0 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 9.9 11.6 14.4 0.5 58.8 54.7 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.5 14.7 0.5 58.5 54.7 10.0 11.0 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.8 12.2 12.9 0.7 63.5 58.0 10.4 11.4 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.2 12.3 14.3 0.9 64.4 59.1 10.4 11.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 9.2 11.0 10.9 0.6 61.0 56.6 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.3 12.9 14.8 1.0 66.0 60.1 10.5 11.7 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.4 11.1 13.2 0.9 67.5 61.4 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.8 10.1 0.4 59.1 55.5 8.1 9.2 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.7 15.1 0.8 63.0 58.2 10.9 11.9 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------