***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9.8 11.2 13.7 0.1 51.0 50.1 10.1 11.1 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.9 13.2 0.0 49.3 49.3 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 12.0 13.2 13.7 0.0 49.3 49.4 12.2 13.2 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 7.4 8.8 11.1 0.2 54.9 52.3 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.2 11.1 -0.1 47.8 48.4 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.2 9.5 9.5 0.1 52.1 52.1 8.4 9.3 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 10.0 11.2 13.3 0.0 50.0 49.3 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.9 5.0 9.2 -0.2 46.6 48.1 4.1 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.2 11.3 -0.1 48.1 48.5 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 9.8 10.9 9.9 -0.1 48.0 48.7 10.0 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 9.6 10.4 10.5 -0.2 46.5 47.8 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.3 9.2 9.8 -0.2 46.5 47.7 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.8 9.8 9.1 -0.1 46.8 47.8 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.4 11.2 -0.1 46.8 48.3 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.7 12.1 12.4 0.3 57.0 53.6 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.2 11.3 10.0 0.0 49.3 49.4 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 10.2 11.3 12.9 -0.1 48.6 48.9 10.4 11.4 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 8.6 9.8 9.0 0.0 49.4 49.2 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.0 11.1 13.2 -0.1 48.2 48.9 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.8 5.9 7.2 -0.1 46.8 48.4 5.1 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.8 12.7 0.0 49.2 49.2 9.9 10.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.2 10.3 12.8 -0.1 47.6 48.6 9.5 10.5 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.5 13.1 -0.2 45.8 47.6 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.8 10.9 11.0 0.0 49.2 49.2 10.0 10.9 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.0 11.5 12.4 0.1 52.6 51.2 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.0 10.0 9.0 -0.2 46.6 48.1 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 9.7 11.6 13.1 0.2 53.3 51.4 10.1 11.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 8.8 10.2 11.4 0.3 55.9 53.1 9.0 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.4 8.7 8.6 -0.1 47.2 48.3 7.8 8.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.4 13.5 0.0 49.5 49.4 10.3 11.4 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------