***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.9 12.9 0.4 56.8 53.9 9.7 10.6 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.9 12.3 0.2 53.4 51.5 9.6 10.7 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.2 13.1 12.9 0.3 55.1 52.9 11.8 12.8 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.1 10.3 0.6 60.3 57.6 7.2 8.4 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 10.0 10.3 0.3 56.3 55.0 8.5 9.6 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.3 9.0 0.7 63.0 59.1 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.1 12.5 0.3 54.8 52.3 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 4.9 4.9 8.6 0.4 57.1 55.4 3.6 4.6 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.8 10.5 0.3 55.4 54.1 9.5 10.5 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.6 9.2 0.4 56.6 55.1 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.1 9.9 0.4 56.7 55.7 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.1 9.2 0.3 56.4 55.0 7.9 8.8 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.3 9.8 8.6 0.4 57.7 55.8 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 10.0 11.0 10.4 0.1 52.4 51.2 10.1 10.9 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.1 11.5 0.6 60.4 58.2 9.7 10.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.1 9.3 0.5 58.7 56.7 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.9 12.0 0.2 53.3 51.4 9.8 10.7 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.5 9.5 8.3 0.4 56.9 55.2 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.8 12.3 0.2 52.5 51.0 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.8 6.7 0.4 58.0 56.0 4.8 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.5 11.9 0.3 55.5 53.6 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.9 12.0 0.2 53.4 51.7 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 9.0 10.2 12.2 0.0 50.7 49.8 9.2 10.2 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.4 10.2 0.3 54.9 53.2 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.2 11.3 11.6 0.5 58.4 55.3 9.7 10.8 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.8 8.5 0.3 56.1 55.0 8.7 9.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.7 12.3 0.5 58.5 55.1 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.4 9.7 10.5 0.6 60.7 58.1 8.0 9.0 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.8 8.0 0.4 57.2 55.4 7.4 8.4 9.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.2 12.6 0.3 54.5 52.1 9.9 10.9 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------