***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 12.1 12.3 15.0 1.1 76.9 70.0 10.8 11.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 12.0 12.2 14.4 0.8 72.5 66.4 10.5 11.3 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 14.3 14.4 14.9 0.8 72.5 66.5 12.9 13.5 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 9.9 10.3 12.3 1.0 78.9 71.5 8.3 9.0 9.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 11.0 11.1 12.6 0.7 72.1 66.4 9.6 10.2 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 10.0 10.3 10.6 0.9 77.6 70.9 8.8 9.3 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.4 14.5 0.9 74.5 67.9 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.0 10.4 0.7 72.0 66.3 4.5 5.1 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 12.0 12.1 12.7 0.7 72.2 66.3 10.8 11.3 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 11.8 11.9 11.2 0.7 73.4 67.0 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 11.3 11.3 12.0 0.6 67.8 63.3 10.1 10.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 30 70 100 10.0 10.0 11.2 0.7 71.1 66.0 8.8 9.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 10.7 10.5 10.6 0.4 64.2 60.6 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.3 12.3 0.5 66.4 61.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.8 13.9 1.0 78.8 72.0 11.3 11.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.1 11.4 0.6 69.1 64.3 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 12.3 12.4 14.0 0.8 71.4 65.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 10.7 10.8 10.3 0.7 72.0 65.7 9.2 9.9 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 12.1 12.2 14.4 0.8 70.7 65.0 10.8 11.4 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.8 8.5 0.6 69.9 64.5 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 11.7 11.7 14.0 0.7 71.7 65.8 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.4 14.0 0.7 69.4 63.8 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 11.6 11.5 14.2 0.6 66.0 61.5 10.2 10.9 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 11.8 11.8 12.3 0.7 70.7 64.6 10.5 11.1 11.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 12.2 12.5 13.9 1.1 77.8 70.6 10.8 11.4 12.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 10.8 10.7 10.2 0.5 65.3 61.8 9.8 10.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 12.6 13.1 14.5 1.2 79.2 71.6 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.6 10.9 12.6 0.9 77.5 70.7 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 9.8 9.8 9.7 0.6 70.3 64.6 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.6 14.7 0.9 73.5 67.3 11.0 11.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------