***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 26.8 28.4 28.3 3.2 86.3 80.7 23.0 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 26.8 28.1 27.9 2.7 82.1 76.1 23.1 24.7 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 26.7 27.7 28.0 2.7 81.5 75.5 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 19.6 21.2 25.6 3.4 87.7 83.6 16.1 17.5 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 27.2 27.9 26.2 2.4 78.6 74.0 23.8 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 26.2 27.3 24.8 3.2 84.5 81.1 22.8 24.2 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 26.6 28.1 27.9 2.9 84.0 77.9 22.8 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 15.4 15.7 24.0 2.2 75.7 72.0 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 26.8 27.4 26.9 2.3 77.2 72.7 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 26.3 27.0 24.9 2.4 78.5 73.7 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 26.8 27.1 26.4 2.0 73.8 70.1 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 26.2 26.6 25.5 2.3 76.5 72.9 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 27.2 27.5 26.5 2.3 76.6 73.2 24.1 25.4 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 26.5 26.5 25.4 1.6 70.7 66.1 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 27.2 28.2 28.5 2.9 82.9 79.8 24.0 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 27.8 28.4 26.5 2.5 78.3 74.7 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 26.0 27.0 27.0 2.4 79.6 73.8 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 25.4 25.9 23.6 2.2 76.0 71.1 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 26.5 27.5 27.8 2.5 79.9 74.1 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 21.6 21.9 21.5 1.9 73.1 69.6 18.4 19.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 26.8 27.7 27.7 2.5 80.5 75.1 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 26.4 27.2 26.8 2.2 77.6 71.6 23.0 24.6 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 26.3 26.7 27.3 1.9 73.3 68.7 22.9 24.5 26.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 26.2 26.7 25.9 2.1 75.6 70.1 22.7 24.3 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 26.9 28.2 27.1 3.0 84.9 79.6 23.4 24.8 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 26.8 27.0 25.0 2.1 74.9 72.2 23.7 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 26.8 28.6 27.8 3.2 87.2 81.5 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 27.2 28.3 26.8 3.1 84.7 81.2 24.1 25.4 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 21.0 21.2 22.7 1.9 72.5 68.4 17.7 19.2 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 26.6 27.9 28.1 2.8 82.6 76.8 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------