***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.3 25.1 0.6 58.0 55.1 23.1 24.6 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.1 24.9 0.4 55.1 52.8 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.1 25.1 0.4 54.7 52.5 23.3 24.7 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.4 19.2 22.9 1.2 65.4 59.8 16.1 17.7 19.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.5 23.4 0.3 53.9 52.0 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.7 24.9 21.6 0.8 59.7 56.5 22.4 24.0 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.8 24.8 0.5 56.1 53.7 22.9 24.3 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 11.9 13.6 21.4 0.0 50.5 49.6 12.2 13.6 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 23.1 25.2 24.0 0.4 54.2 52.1 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 22.8 24.8 22.4 0.4 54.6 52.4 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 23.1 24.9 23.4 0.0 50.2 49.5 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 22.2 24.1 22.7 0.0 50.2 49.5 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 23.2 25.1 22.9 0.0 49.6 49.5 23.6 25.1 26.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 23.0 24.5 23.0 -0.1 48.7 48.3 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.9 26.3 24.9 0.9 62.2 58.2 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 26.4 25.9 23.2 0.2 53.0 51.6 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.3 24.1 24.3 0.3 54.2 52.1 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 21.9 23.8 21.4 0.2 52.6 50.9 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.0 24.7 24.9 0.3 53.6 51.8 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 17.9 19.4 19.0 -0.3 46.8 47.2 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.6 25.4 24.6 0.4 54.5 52.3 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 24.8 24.6 24.3 0.3 53.5 51.4 23.0 24.3 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 22.9 24.5 24.7 0.0 49.7 48.9 23.2 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.6 23.3 0.2 52.4 50.8 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.5 23.8 0.7 58.7 55.3 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 23.2 24.7 22.1 -0.2 47.5 48.3 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.4 24.4 0.7 59.2 55.7 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.9 26.5 23.8 1.0 63.6 58.9 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 17.3 19.0 20.4 -0.1 49.2 48.6 17.7 19.1 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.0 24.9 25.0 0.4 55.2 53.0 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------