***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.09.2019.-22.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 20.8 22.9 23.7 0.3 53.9 53.2 21.0 22.6 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.1 23.3 0.0 50.0 50.9 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 21.4 23.4 23.9 0.1 51.6 51.9 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 14.4 17.2 21.9 0.8 59.7 56.6 14.8 16.3 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.8 24.0 22.2 0.2 52.1 51.8 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 21.4 23.6 20.3 0.4 55.1 53.8 21.7 23.2 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 20.9 22.8 23.3 0.0 50.4 51.2 21.2 22.7 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.3 13.0 20.7 0.0 49.9 50.2 11.6 13.0 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 21.4 23.7 22.5 0.3 53.1 52.7 21.8 23.4 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 21.2 23.5 21.4 0.2 52.7 52.3 21.6 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 21.8 23.6 22.0 0.0 49.8 50.1 22.2 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 21.1 23.0 21.9 -0.1 49.1 49.6 21.4 23.0 24.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 22.3 24.2 21.2 0.0 50.3 50.5 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 21.0 22.9 21.6 -0.4 46.0 47.8 21.5 23.3 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 22.0 24.5 22.8 0.8 59.5 56.3 22.3 23.7 25.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 22.8 24.9 21.8 0.2 52.7 52.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.3 23.0 -0.1 49.4 50.4 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 20.5 22.6 20.8 0.2 52.1 51.9 20.8 22.4 23.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 23.6 22.8 23.5 -0.1 49.3 50.4 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 17.0 18.8 18.3 -0.1 48.7 49.4 17.4 18.9 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 21.5 23.6 23.2 0.3 53.1 52.6 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.0 23.0 0.0 49.5 50.4 21.3 23.0 24.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.8 23.5 -0.3 47.0 48.8 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 21.2 23.2 22.0 0.1 50.6 51.0 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 21.3 23.6 22.2 0.5 56.6 54.6 21.6 23.0 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 22.0 23.9 21.4 -0.1 48.2 48.8 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 21.2 23.5 23.0 0.5 56.2 54.5 21.5 22.9 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 22.0 24.7 22.3 0.7 59.2 56.3 22.4 23.9 25.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 16.0 18.0 19.7 0.0 49.6 50.1 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 21.0 22.9 23.5 0.1 50.6 51.4 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------