***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-08.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.5 6.1 7.4 67.3 54.4 39.0 2.3 5.0 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.1 4.9 7.2 69.5 54.6 40.4 2.0 4.2 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 2.5 6.2 7.1 64.0 53.0 37.9 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.0 10.2 7.5 64.7 52.9 32.3 4.5 9.1 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 2.7 8.5 8.0 74.2 57.0 36.0 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 2.5 7.9 7.6 63.6 50.7 29.6 3.3 7.7 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.1 6.9 7.2 69.4 55.3 39.6 3.1 5.8 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 6.2 15.3 9.1 63.9 51.0 34.3 7.1 14.6 25.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 3.0 8.2 7.8 71.6 55.5 34.7 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 3.5 9.4 9.7 69.6 53.9 35.6 4.2 8.1 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.4 8.9 7.8 69.9 55.4 33.6 4.2 7.5 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 3.2 8.2 6.7 59.9 49.8 31.8 3.8 8.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 3.4 10.1 7.6 68.6 54.4 31.6 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.8 8.8 10.0 69.0 54.0 40.9 3.8 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 1.4 5.5 6.8 64.4 55.1 29.0 1.8 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 3.1 9.1 7.1 65.6 53.7 31.3 4.1 8.0 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.9 7.1 71.0 55.4 42.9 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.4 11.0 70.2 53.6 38.9 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.6 7.4 69.0 54.5 40.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 5.2 13.4 13.1 81.4 57.4 42.2 5.0 10.2 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.8 7.3 7.2 66.6 53.8 34.5 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.2 7.4 70.9 55.0 43.5 4.3 7.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 2.7 6.7 7.8 68.8 54.9 40.8 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.1 7.6 8.8 65.6 53.0 38.3 2.9 6.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 2.8 8.1 8.3 71.2 56.7 37.3 2.8 6.1 11.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 2.8 7.8 6.8 72.5 55.5 32.7 3.3 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.6 6.4 7.7 66.4 54.6 38.3 2.6 5.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 2.7 7.1 7.0 62.1 52.6 29.7 3.5 6.6 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 6.5 16.2 12.3 77.4 56.3 41.6 6.5 13.1 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.4 6.4 7.2 69.1 55.2 39.9 2.4 5.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------