***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.09.2019.-15.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.8 23.5 14.4 128.0 72.9 55.5 4.9 10.2 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 13.1 20.6 14.5 129.4 73.2 57.1 4.6 9.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.8 19.0 14.6 122.0 71.4 55.2 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.9 18.4 14.7 116.7 70.5 54.0 4.0 8.6 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.6 16.0 14.0 122.6 71.5 54.3 2.8 6.5 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.3 14.2 101.4 65.3 50.9 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.0 21.4 14.7 130.1 73.4 57.5 4.1 9.0 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.2 21.0 14.7 115.5 69.2 53.2 5.6 11.1 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.0 15.3 14.1 119.4 70.5 55.6 3.8 7.7 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.2 16.3 15.7 120.7 70.8 55.8 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.8 13.2 13.5 118.5 70.2 52.8 2.9 6.1 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.9 12.5 12.0 109.9 67.7 50.4 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.4 12.2 13.3 116.2 70.0 52.3 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 15.4 24.9 18.2 124.5 71.7 58.2 4.5 10.5 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.5 13.7 111.2 69.7 52.6 2.1 4.8 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.6 13.2 115.5 69.5 52.6 3.2 6.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.9 23.0 15.2 136.0 74.7 58.5 4.0 8.9 16.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 13.2 18.9 16.7 115.3 69.1 56.3 5.2 10.2 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.9 21.8 14.4 127.0 72.5 56.9 4.9 9.9 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.6 21.0 16.8 110.9 67.3 56.0 5.5 11.4 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.8 18.1 14.3 122.7 71.5 55.7 4.2 8.5 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 20.2 21.7 15.4 129.0 73.1 58.7 4.5 9.5 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.0 18.0 14.6 124.4 71.7 56.5 4.5 8.8 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 13.1 19.8 16.2 119.1 70.2 55.6 4.3 9.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.6 21.2 16.4 132.6 73.9 57.2 4.3 9.2 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.8 10.1 11.9 101.4 64.7 47.6 2.5 5.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 14.1 22.8 15.7 128.9 73.0 56.9 4.5 9.7 17.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.3 10.8 13.7 112.8 70.0 53.4 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.4 28.6 17.1 112.9 68.1 56.3 9.0 16.5 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.7 19.1 14.6 126.4 72.5 56.7 4.0 8.5 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------