***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 3.3 9.1 7.7 71.3 55.1 37.1 3.9 7.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.0 6.3 61.9 51.5 36.5 3.7 6.8 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.4 9.8 7.6 70.5 54.7 38.3 4.7 8.5 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.1 14.9 8.8 79.9 59.0 38.8 5.4 10.9 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.5 10.8 8.5 84.5 60.3 39.9 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.5 9.7 89.7 61.7 43.3 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.4 6.7 6.5 62.7 51.6 36.3 3.4 6.3 10.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.3 18.1 11.1 99.2 64.6 45.3 6.6 11.8 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.5 10.2 8.9 84.9 60.2 40.3 3.9 7.4 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 4.9 14.6 11.0 94.6 63.0 43.4 5.3 9.8 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.8 9.0 96.3 64.1 42.5 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.6 11.3 9.1 97.4 64.2 44.0 3.6 7.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.6 9.2 92.6 62.7 44.8 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.8 13.1 10.1 76.3 56.5 41.0 5.8 10.7 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 3.3 12.2 8.9 87.1 62.5 36.9 3.7 7.9 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.1 8.7 90.9 62.3 42.7 3.6 6.8 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.9 6.3 7.2 70.4 54.4 37.4 3.2 5.6 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.4 15.2 12.3 95.5 63.0 44.4 4.7 9.5 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.2 7.0 6.6 63.2 52.0 37.3 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.6 18.2 14.7 102.5 64.9 46.9 5.3 10.8 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.9 10.8 8.4 80.1 58.5 38.8 4.2 8.1 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.5 7.6 8.0 73.7 56.3 39.8 3.5 6.3 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.5 7.1 65.7 52.6 38.0 4.6 7.9 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.7 12.3 10.2 82.7 58.8 41.6 4.9 9.2 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 4.7 11.9 8.9 75.9 57.3 37.3 5.2 9.5 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.7 11.2 8.9 93.1 63.1 44.3 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.8 10.3 8.3 72.3 55.6 36.6 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 2.7 9.5 8.7 84.7 60.9 38.3 2.9 6.3 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.1 24.0 13.2 99.6 64.0 45.6 8.0 15.2 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.6 5.9 6.6 63.1 52.1 36.8 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------