***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.08.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.09.2019.-29.09.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 47.3 45.9 41.5 94.8 57.5 50.9 24.2 38.4 56.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 42.2 41.3 39.4 95.6 57.0 50.4 23.8 35.7 49.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 48.4 47.1 41.2 92.9 56.1 50.7 28.6 41.7 57.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 60.6 59.2 42.9 91.7 56.5 49.8 35.6 51.9 71.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 46.1 47.9 43.0 99.7 60.1 53.3 25.7 38.6 54.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 46.1 41.4 42.8 87.1 51.9 46.2 27.6 39.9 54.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 45.5 44.3 39.5 94.9 56.7 49.8 25.8 38.4 53.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 77.0 77.0 48.2 96.3 57.1 51.5 45.8 66.8 91.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 47.3 48.0 43.6 98.3 58.9 52.8 28.1 40.5 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 52.3 54.0 50.5 99.3 58.9 53.2 31.6 45.6 62.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 43.9 46.3 42.0 98.8 59.6 53.2 27.3 38.8 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 46.3 44.9 38.8 92.7 55.8 50.2 27.1 40.1 55.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 45.6 44.7 41.1 94.2 56.7 50.2 26.5 39.1 54.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 65.3 64.7 54.2 97.5 57.6 52.7 37.5 55.5 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 40.2 39.2 38.6 88.3 56.5 48.7 21.0 33.5 48.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 40.4 40.8 40.2 94.2 57.2 50.7 23.0 34.7 49.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 43.1 43.3 40.1 96.8 57.7 51.1 24.9 36.8 51.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 60.3 60.9 56.0 100.0 58.3 53.0 35.2 51.5 70.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 48.9 47.7 40.1 94.9 56.7 50.6 28.7 41.9 57.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 73.2 75.9 62.6 103.7 60.3 53.6 49.5 65.2 82.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 50.7 50.6 42.2 96.5 58.2 52.0 27.2 41.7 60.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 47.2 47.4 42.3 95.2 56.9 50.9 28.3 41.2 56.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 46.6 45.3 41.6 94.0 56.3 51.2 28.5 40.5 54.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 59.0 58.0 49.6 96.4 57.0 51.9 34.1 50.2 69.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 53.0 54.0 46.3 97.6 59.0 51.7 31.9 45.6 61.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 40.8 40.2 38.7 94.6 57.0 50.4 23.2 34.8 48.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 50.9 49.9 44.4 95.2 57.6 50.8 27.1 41.8 60.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 38.8 37.4 40.0 89.1 56.0 49.0 21.4 32.7 46.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 92.4 95.2 59.4 102.4 59.6 54.0 59.5 81.4 106.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 42.7 41.7 39.9 94.5 56.7 50.4 24.0 36.0 50.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------