***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 9999.0 13.0 15.1 1.7 86.2 80.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 12.2 12.9 14.8 1.6 85.0 79.5 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 15 85 100 14.4 15.1 14.9 1.7 87.3 81.8 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 9.9 10.5 12.6 1.3 82.8 76.9 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 11.0 11.7 12.7 1.5 85.5 79.5 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 10.1 10.7 10.9 1.5 86.7 80.3 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 12.2 12.8 14.9 1.6 84.7 79.3 10.8 11.4 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 5.9 6.6 11.0 1.5 86.8 80.8 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 12.1 12.7 13.2 1.6 87.6 81.9 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 11.8 12.4 11.6 1.5 86.8 81.2 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 11.4 12.1 12.3 1.6 88.6 82.2 10.0 10.5 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 10.0 10.7 11.8 1.5 87.7 81.2 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 10.8 11.3 11.2 1.4 85.3 79.2 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 17 83 100 12.4 13.1 13.3 1.7 88.2 82.5 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 12.4 13.0 13.6 1.5 85.2 79.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 12.2 12.8 11.9 1.5 86.8 80.4 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 12.4 12.9 14.4 1.5 84.4 78.8 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 10.8 11.5 10.9 1.5 85.9 80.7 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 12.2 12.9 14.9 1.7 86.7 81.0 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 6.8 7.3 9.2 1.3 82.6 77.0 5.4 6.0 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 11.7 12.3 14.3 1.6 85.9 80.0 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 11.4 12.1 14.5 1.6 86.0 80.2 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 11.8 12.7 14.9 1.9 89.7 83.9 10.1 10.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 11.8 12.6 13.1 1.7 88.8 83.4 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 12.2 12.9 13.6 1.6 85.8 79.4 10.6 11.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 10.8 11.2 11.2 1.2 80.9 75.3 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 12.6 13.4 14.3 1.6 84.8 78.8 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 10.6 11.0 12.9 1.3 82.5 76.8 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 9.9 10.7 10.4 1.5 87.2 81.6 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 12.5 13.2 15.1 1.6 85.3 79.8 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------