***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 15.5 18.4 3.7 94.7 93.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 13.5 15.0 17.7 3.3 92.6 90.8 10.8 11.8 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 15.8 17.7 18.1 3.6 94.5 92.8 13.1 14.1 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 11.2 12.5 15.3 2.8 89.9 88.7 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 12.3 13.7 15.7 3.0 92.2 90.8 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 11.3 12.4 13.3 2.8 91.5 90.2 9.0 9.9 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 13.6 15.0 17.9 3.3 92.9 91.3 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 7.0 8.4 13.5 2.9 91.6 89.8 4.2 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 13.4 15.0 16.5 3.3 94.4 93.0 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 13.1 14.4 14.6 3.1 93.0 91.3 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 12.7 14.0 15.3 3.1 93.1 91.8 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 3 97 100 11.1 12.3 14.3 2.9 91.5 90.0 8.9 9.7 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 12.1 13.2 14.0 2.8 91.6 89.9 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 13.9 15.3 16.3 3.1 92.8 90.5 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 13.9 15.0 16.9 3.0 92.7 91.7 11.9 12.6 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 3 97 100 13.6 14.8 14.7 2.9 92.1 90.6 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 13.8 15.1 17.2 3.2 92.5 90.6 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 12.1 13.6 13.6 2.9 91.9 90.1 9.5 10.4 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 13.5 15.0 17.9 3.4 93.7 91.7 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 8.2 9.3 11.2 2.5 89.1 86.9 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 13.0 14.6 17.6 3.3 93.7 92.1 10.6 11.5 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 12.8 14.1 17.5 3.2 93.2 90.9 10.8 11.5 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 12.9 14.9 18.1 3.7 95.7 93.6 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 13.3 14.8 16.1 3.3 94.2 92.4 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 13.5 15.2 17.1 3.4 93.7 92.0 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 12.2 12.9 13.4 2.5 86.6 84.9 10.1 10.9 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 14.6 16.8 17.4 3.4 93.0 91.3 10.8 12.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 11.7 12.5 15.7 2.6 89.2 88.0 9.7 10.4 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 3 97 100 11.1 12.7 12.9 2.9 92.7 90.5 8.3 9.3 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 14.0 15.6 18.1 3.4 93.1 91.4 11.3 12.3 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------