***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9999.0 13.0 15.3 1.4 71.2 66.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 12.5 12.8 15.2 1.4 71.9 67.3 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 47 53 100 14.6 15.1 15.1 1.5 72.7 68.4 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 10.8 10.8 12.9 1.0 67.4 64.1 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 11.4 11.6 12.8 1.2 69.5 65.9 9.3 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.6 10.8 11.3 1.3 73.5 68.6 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 12.6 12.9 15.2 1.4 71.8 67.4 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 6.7 7.0 11.3 1.3 72.2 68.4 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.8 13.3 1.3 71.3 67.5 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.4 11.8 1.2 70.8 67.4 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.8 12.0 12.5 1.3 73.1 69.0 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 10.4 10.7 12.1 1.3 73.7 69.3 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 11.1 11.3 11.4 1.2 71.2 67.1 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.2 13.5 1.5 74.6 70.4 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.1 13.7 1.1 69.3 65.6 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.9 12.1 1.2 71.8 67.7 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 12.9 13.2 14.7 1.4 71.4 67.0 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 11.0 11.1 11.1 1.2 70.5 67.1 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 12.6 12.9 15.1 1.5 73.1 68.4 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.1 9.6 1.0 68.3 65.1 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 11.4 12.4 14.4 1.3 70.8 66.9 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 12.1 12.3 14.7 1.4 72.7 68.0 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.5 15.0 1.6 75.5 70.7 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 12.3 12.7 13.2 1.4 73.5 69.6 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 12.5 12.7 13.7 1.3 70.5 66.2 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 10.6 11.2 11.4 0.9 65.7 62.4 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 12.2 13.2 14.4 1.3 70.4 66.0 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.0 13.2 1.1 68.2 64.7 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 10.5 10.7 10.7 1.3 72.5 68.6 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 12.9 13.2 15.3 1.4 71.9 67.4 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------