***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 12.9 14.0 0.9 65.0 61.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.2 11.8 13.9 0.9 65.6 62.2 9.9 10.9 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 14.1 14.0 13.8 1.0 67.3 63.6 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 8.9 9.4 11.8 0.8 65.4 62.0 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 11.2 11.2 11.7 0.9 67.0 63.1 9.0 10.1 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.2 10.1 0.9 67.7 63.4 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.9 13.8 0.9 65.2 61.7 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.1 10.1 0.8 67.0 63.2 4.2 5.1 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 12.0 12.0 12.1 0.9 67.7 63.7 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 11.8 11.7 10.6 0.8 66.2 62.8 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.4 11.5 11.4 1.0 70.6 65.4 9.5 10.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.3 10.3 10.9 0.9 68.4 64.2 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.1 10.7 10.2 0.7 65.1 62.2 8.9 9.9 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.3 12.3 1.0 69.6 65.6 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 12.3 12.3 12.5 0.9 67.8 63.8 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.2 10.9 0.9 68.6 64.1 10.3 11.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 12.2 12.0 13.4 0.8 64.8 61.8 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.7 10.0 0.8 65.5 62.7 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 11.4 12.0 13.9 1.0 67.1 63.6 10.2 11.1 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.8 8.6 0.7 63.9 61.2 5.0 6.0 6.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.0 11.6 13.1 0.9 66.1 62.5 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 11.2 11.2 13.5 1.0 66.8 63.8 9.4 10.3 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 11.7 11.9 13.7 1.2 70.1 66.1 9.6 10.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 11.7 11.7 12.0 1.0 69.1 65.3 9.9 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.6 12.2 12.5 0.9 65.6 62.0 10.2 11.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 11.1 10.7 10.4 0.7 62.8 60.3 9.2 10.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.7 12.3 13.2 0.8 64.1 60.8 10.0 11.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 10.6 10.5 12.0 0.8 66.1 62.4 8.8 9.7 10.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 9.9 9.8 9.6 0.8 67.1 63.9 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 11.6 12.2 14.0 0.9 65.6 62.2 10.3 11.3 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------