***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 11.5 12.9 0.9 63.7 59.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.9 11.2 12.6 0.7 62.4 58.4 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 13.0 13.5 12.7 0.9 65.4 60.7 11.5 12.6 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.1 10.5 0.7 62.9 59.8 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 10.6 10.3 10.5 0.8 64.0 60.6 8.2 9.3 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.9 9.5 8.9 0.9 66.9 62.3 7.6 8.6 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.2 12.6 0.7 61.6 57.8 9.7 10.6 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 5.3 5.2 9.0 0.9 66.3 62.3 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 11.3 11.2 11.0 0.9 65.6 61.7 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 11.0 10.8 9.5 0.9 65.9 62.2 9.3 10.1 10.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.6 10.2 0.9 66.8 62.5 8.8 9.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 9.7 9.6 9.8 0.9 67.4 62.6 7.8 8.7 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.1 9.1 0.9 66.2 61.6 8.4 9.3 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 11.5 11.5 11.1 1.0 67.6 62.8 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.4 11.3 0.9 67.0 62.9 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.4 9.7 0.9 66.2 61.8 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.0 12.1 0.6 59.7 56.7 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 10.0 9.9 8.9 0.9 66.6 62.6 8.2 9.1 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.2 12.6 0.9 64.5 59.9 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.9 7.5 0.8 64.2 60.8 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.8 12.0 0.8 63.9 60.0 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.2 12.2 0.7 62.0 58.7 8.7 9.6 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.0 12.5 1.1 67.6 62.3 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 10.8 10.8 10.9 1.0 68.1 63.3 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.0 11.4 11.3 0.9 64.5 60.1 9.4 10.5 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.2 9.5 0.9 66.8 61.7 8.6 9.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 9.2 11.8 12.1 0.9 64.1 59.6 9.4 10.8 12.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.8 10.8 0.8 64.0 60.7 7.9 8.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.1 8.4 0.9 66.3 62.4 7.1 8.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.6 12.8 0.8 63.5 59.1 9.7 10.7 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------