***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 25.3 25.1 2.1 86.5 79.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 24.9 25.9 25.0 2.0 83.9 77.1 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 25.0 26.0 25.1 2.1 85.3 78.4 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 18.0 18.8 23.2 1.8 81.3 74.7 15.7 16.7 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 25.6 26.5 23.5 2.0 83.8 76.6 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 24.7 25.6 21.5 2.0 84.1 76.5 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 24.5 25.5 24.9 2.0 84.2 77.7 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 14.2 15.1 21.9 2.0 84.5 77.2 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 25.2 26.3 24.0 2.1 85.4 78.0 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 24.9 26.0 22.6 2.0 84.9 77.6 22.5 23.6 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 25.3 26.3 23.2 2.1 85.4 77.8 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 24.7 25.7 22.9 2.1 85.1 77.5 22.3 23.3 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 25.7 26.7 22.7 2.1 84.9 77.4 23.3 24.3 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 25.0 26.1 23.6 2.1 85.0 77.8 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 25.4 26.1 23.9 1.8 82.0 75.7 23.2 24.2 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 26.2 27.2 23.1 2.1 84.7 77.2 23.9 24.9 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 24.1 25.1 24.6 2.0 84.7 77.9 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 24.0 24.9 21.8 2.0 84.0 77.2 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 24.7 25.7 25.1 2.1 84.7 77.8 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 20.1 20.9 19.7 1.8 82.5 75.9 18.0 18.9 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 25.1 26.1 24.6 2.0 84.2 77.0 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 24.8 25.8 24.6 2.0 84.5 77.5 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 24.8 25.9 25.1 2.2 86.4 79.3 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 24.8 25.8 23.5 2.1 85.2 78.3 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 24.9 25.8 23.6 2.0 84.8 77.8 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 25.3 26.1 22.4 1.8 81.7 74.8 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 24.8 25.8 24.3 2.1 85.6 78.6 22.6 23.6 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 25.5 26.2 23.5 1.7 80.4 73.9 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 19.5 20.3 20.9 1.9 83.5 76.9 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 24.7 25.7 25.1 2.0 84.4 77.6 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------