***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 9999.0 28.7 27.7 3.4 88.2 83.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 27.0 28.4 27.4 3.2 85.9 81.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 26.7 28.1 27.5 3.1 85.4 80.6 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 19.5 20.2 25.0 2.6 81.2 77.9 15.9 17.3 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 27.3 28.5 25.9 3.0 83.6 79.7 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 9 91 100 26.2 27.5 23.9 3.3 86.9 83.9 22.6 24.0 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 26.7 28.3 27.4 3.3 87.2 82.7 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 15.3 16.4 24.0 3.0 83.0 79.0 12.0 13.4 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 26.9 28.3 26.8 3.1 85.1 80.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 26.3 27.5 24.9 3.0 83.6 79.4 22.8 24.3 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 27.0 28.2 25.8 3.1 84.1 80.4 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 26.2 27.4 25.2 3.2 84.6 81.0 22.7 24.1 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 27.3 28.7 25.8 3.7 87.9 84.6 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 26.6 27.7 25.9 2.8 83.2 77.9 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 11 89 100 27.3 28.1 26.9 2.8 83.3 80.5 23.8 25.1 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 27.8 29.2 25.8 3.3 86.0 82.7 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 15 85 100 26.2 27.7 27.0 3.2 86.8 82.0 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 25.4 26.5 23.9 2.8 82.4 77.6 22.0 23.5 24.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 13 87 100 26.7 28.1 27.5 3.2 86.1 81.1 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 21.5 22.6 21.7 2.7 81.3 76.3 18.2 19.6 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 26.8 27.9 27.2 2.8 82.8 78.7 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 26.6 28.0 26.8 3.0 85.4 80.3 23.0 24.5 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 26.8 28.4 27.5 3.3 87.5 82.2 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 26.3 27.5 25.7 2.9 83.3 78.6 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 26.8 28.0 26.1 3.0 84.3 80.4 23.2 24.7 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 26.8 27.9 25.0 3.3 85.7 82.4 23.4 24.7 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 26.8 28.3 26.9 3.2 87.0 82.8 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 27.2 27.8 25.8 2.6 81.2 78.2 23.9 25.2 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 21.1 22.2 23.1 2.8 82.4 77.2 17.5 19.0 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 13 87 100 26.8 28.3 27.6 3.2 86.5 81.7 22.9 24.4 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------