***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 27.1 25.5 2.1 76.6 69.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 26.3 27.0 25.6 2.2 76.4 69.8 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 26.5 27.1 25.6 2.1 76.3 69.7 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 19.6 19.7 23.7 1.5 70.3 65.0 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 30 70 100 27.1 27.3 23.8 1.7 72.1 66.3 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 26.0 26.0 21.7 1.5 69.4 64.1 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 25.9 26.6 25.4 2.1 76.3 69.9 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.7 22.2 1.8 73.0 67.0 12.2 13.7 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 26.6 27.0 24.1 1.9 73.7 67.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 26.3 26.6 22.9 1.9 73.5 67.4 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 26.7 27.0 23.4 1.9 73.6 67.3 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 26.0 26.4 23.2 1.8 72.9 66.9 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 27.0 27.1 22.7 1.7 70.7 65.2 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 26.5 27.1 24.1 2.2 77.2 70.0 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 27.0 27.1 24.2 1.5 70.5 65.4 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 27.6 27.8 23.1 1.7 71.5 65.7 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 25.3 26.0 25.2 2.2 77.3 70.7 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 25.4 25.7 22.2 2.0 74.1 68.0 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 26.1 26.8 25.7 2.2 77.0 70.2 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 21.6 21.8 20.1 1.8 73.0 67.0 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 26.7 27.1 24.9 1.9 73.9 67.6 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 26.0 26.7 25.3 2.3 77.7 70.9 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 26.2 26.9 25.6 2.3 78.1 70.9 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 26.2 26.7 23.9 2.1 76.2 69.5 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 26.5 26.9 24.0 1.9 74.7 68.1 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 26.8 26.6 22.6 1.4 67.9 63.3 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 26.3 26.9 24.6 2.0 75.7 69.0 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 27.0 26.9 23.9 1.4 68.8 63.9 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 20.8 21.1 21.3 2.0 74.2 68.0 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 26.1 26.8 25.7 2.1 76.3 69.7 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------