***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 24.9 24.6 1.8 73.6 67.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 24.7 25.3 24.6 1.8 72.9 67.0 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 25.0 25.5 24.6 1.9 73.7 67.9 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 18.1 18.2 22.8 1.6 70.9 66.0 14.7 16.3 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 25.7 26.0 23.0 1.8 72.5 67.1 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 24.7 24.9 20.9 1.5 70.2 64.2 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 24.5 24.9 24.4 1.8 72.4 66.9 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 14.7 15.0 21.4 1.8 73.3 67.3 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 25.5 25.8 23.4 1.9 73.7 67.9 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 25.2 25.6 22.1 1.9 73.6 67.8 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 25.6 25.9 22.7 1.9 74.2 68.1 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 24.9 25.2 22.4 1.8 73.2 67.1 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 25.8 26.1 21.9 1.7 71.0 65.2 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 25.4 26.1 23.2 2.1 75.0 68.9 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 25.2 25.4 23.2 1.6 71.4 66.3 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 26.4 26.7 22.4 1.8 72.3 66.4 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 23.9 24.6 24.2 1.9 73.9 67.9 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 24.3 24.7 21.4 1.9 73.2 67.6 20.8 22.4 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 24.5 25.2 24.7 1.9 73.8 67.6 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 20.6 20.9 19.3 1.7 72.1 66.3 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 25.2 25.5 24.0 1.8 72.9 67.4 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 24.8 25.7 24.3 1.9 74.6 68.0 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 24.9 25.6 24.6 2.1 75.2 68.8 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 25.1 25.6 23.1 2.0 74.5 68.6 21.5 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 24.7 25.1 23.1 1.8 73.1 67.6 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 25.7 25.7 21.8 1.4 68.1 62.9 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 24.6 25.0 23.7 1.8 73.1 67.5 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 25.5 25.6 23.0 1.5 70.1 65.2 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 20.1 20.5 20.5 1.8 72.9 67.3 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 24.6 25.1 24.7 1.8 72.9 67.0 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------