***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 23.2 22.7 1.3 65.6 61.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 23.0 23.4 22.3 0.9 61.3 57.5 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.1 23.9 22.7 1.2 65.0 60.5 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.9 21.1 1.2 65.3 61.1 13.9 15.5 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 23.6 24.4 21.3 1.3 66.2 61.5 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 23.7 23.7 19.5 1.5 68.7 62.8 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 22.6 22.9 22.2 0.9 61.4 57.7 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 12.4 13.3 19.8 1.3 66.4 61.2 10.4 11.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 23.2 24.1 21.6 1.4 66.6 61.8 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.8 20.5 1.4 66.3 61.3 20.6 22.2 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 24.3 24.3 21.1 1.5 68.0 62.5 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 22.6 23.7 20.8 1.4 67.7 61.9 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 23.6 24.6 20.4 1.5 67.8 61.9 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.2 23.9 21.2 1.2 64.1 59.0 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 24.1 24.0 21.5 1.3 66.5 62.1 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 25.1 25.1 20.8 1.5 67.8 62.2 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.5 21.8 0.8 60.2 56.6 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 22.1 22.9 19.7 1.3 64.7 60.0 20.0 21.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.2 22.5 1.0 62.3 58.1 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.8 17.5 1.1 63.6 59.1 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 23.2 24.0 22.3 1.3 65.7 61.2 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.3 21.9 0.8 60.3 56.6 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.6 22.5 1.2 64.1 59.1 20.9 22.4 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 22.9 23.7 21.3 1.3 65.3 60.3 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 22.7 23.4 21.3 1.3 66.1 61.7 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 23.3 24.1 20.2 1.2 65.8 60.7 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.7 23.4 21.8 1.2 65.2 60.9 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 23.5 24.3 21.4 1.2 65.4 61.1 21.3 22.9 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.5 18.2 18.8 1.2 63.9 59.3 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.7 23.2 22.5 1.0 62.6 58.6 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------