***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-09.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 13.3 13.6 133.0 73.8 56.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.2 12.0 14.9 139.2 75.2 57.8 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.2 14.9 15.1 141.0 75.6 57.7 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.6 21.1 14.0 126.9 72.4 55.3 4.9 9.9 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.9 14.5 14.5 133.4 73.8 58.2 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.7 19.9 15.7 135.8 74.3 57.8 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.7 16.3 14.6 140.6 75.5 58.0 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 20.7 33.4 16.1 131.6 73.1 59.6 7.3 14.9 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.8 14.2 14.8 127.5 72.4 58.8 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.0 16.9 17.3 134.2 74.0 61.5 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.8 15.9 13.7 136.9 74.7 58.2 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 12.5 20.1 13.3 132.4 73.5 58.0 4.5 9.2 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.1 18.9 14.9 138.1 74.9 60.2 4.3 8.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 16.4 18.0 18.7 132.8 73.7 58.1 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.2 9.3 11.0 106.6 66.4 48.1 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.2 17.7 13.9 135.6 74.4 57.7 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.4 13.5 14.5 130.2 73.1 57.1 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 16.4 18.8 19.9 134.2 73.9 62.0 4.5 8.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.7 18.5 15.1 137.5 74.8 57.0 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 14.9 21.4 19.4 121.9 70.3 59.2 6.3 11.6 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.8 15.0 14.4 135.8 74.4 58.0 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.0 17.0 15.2 127.4 72.3 56.9 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.5 14.2 15.5 132.5 73.5 55.2 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 15.2 17.7 17.9 138.2 74.9 59.4 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.3 13.7 13.8 121.4 70.8 54.5 2.7 6.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 12.0 15.7 14.2 151.7 77.9 62.3 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.1 12.4 13.9 122.4 70.9 54.9 2.5 5.7 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.8 13.0 12.9 123.3 71.2 53.6 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.7 27.8 19.3 125.3 71.2 59.2 7.2 13.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.6 16.2 14.7 139.5 75.2 57.7 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------