***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2012.-16.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 9999.0 11.4 6.9 89.7 61.1 38.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 3.7 11.4 6.4 79.0 58.0 38.3 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.9 9.3 6.4 78.3 57.0 38.2 3.2 7.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.1 13.4 8.4 96.0 64.0 38.9 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.4 10.6 8.2 85.9 60.6 39.9 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 2.3 10.9 13.8 120.7 71.1 46.4 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 2.9 10.1 6.4 77.5 56.4 36.5 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.3 13.6 9.0 79.5 57.6 43.0 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.5 9.4 7.8 79.1 57.9 39.3 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.6 8.7 77.4 56.9 41.7 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.0 7.9 87.0 60.9 40.7 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.3 10.0 8.2 91.2 62.5 42.7 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 3.0 11.1 11.0 111.1 68.9 46.4 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.6 11.1 7.8 67.5 52.4 39.2 4.5 10.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 2.2 9.7 8.3 108.5 68.5 40.9 2.3 4.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.3 10.8 9.7 104.3 66.8 43.5 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 3.8 11.3 6.1 73.1 54.8 35.9 4.6 9.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.4 12.3 9.6 74.5 54.7 42.0 5.6 10.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 3.7 10.8 6.2 77.7 57.5 38.9 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.4 14.7 11.9 73.4 53.7 43.4 7.3 13.1 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.8 11.5 7.0 83.8 59.2 38.4 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 3.6 10.5 6.6 76.0 56.2 38.1 3.9 8.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.1 8.5 6.1 73.1 54.6 37.7 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.9 7.8 71.8 54.2 39.9 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.9 14.4 8.4 94.9 63.3 41.3 4.2 9.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.4 11.2 9.7 112.5 69.2 45.6 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 3.7 14.2 8.1 92.7 62.5 41.0 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.3 9.1 8.9 108.6 68.1 40.5 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.5 16.6 10.3 72.1 53.7 42.0 7.9 14.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 3.6 11.0 6.5 80.6 58.3 38.5 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------