***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2012.-23.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 8.2 5.7 57.9 48.5 32.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.1 7.7 86.8 60.1 41.0 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 3.3 8.9 6.7 69.8 53.5 34.0 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.5 7.9 6.7 57.3 49.9 33.1 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 1.9 5.6 7.0 59.7 50.1 32.3 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 2.7 8.4 11.4 78.9 58.3 37.4 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.0 9.9 7.3 79.1 57.2 39.4 4.1 7.8 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 4.0 11.1 9.8 69.4 52.8 34.9 4.7 10.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 2.3 7.2 7.4 62.8 51.4 32.0 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 3.1 8.0 9.4 67.5 52.3 33.8 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 2.1 6.6 7.3 66.2 52.8 32.6 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 72 28 0 100 2.4 7.0 8.1 71.7 55.2 34.3 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.8 8.7 9.6 76.9 57.8 37.0 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 3.6 10.4 8.7 70.8 52.9 36.0 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.3 7.2 7.1 64.0 54.5 34.3 2.6 5.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 2.1 6.5 8.1 70.4 55.5 34.9 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.9 10.2 7.9 90.3 61.3 40.9 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 2.7 8.0 11.1 70.3 52.0 34.5 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.3 10.2 7.7 87.6 60.3 40.5 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 3.5 8.8 13.5 68.1 50.5 36.5 4.1 8.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.8 7.8 6.3 60.4 50.5 31.8 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.1 10.9 8.4 97.2 63.5 42.8 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.4 7.4 80.5 57.7 38.1 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 3.0 9.5 8.9 70.1 52.3 33.1 3.7 8.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.3 6.2 52.9 46.5 32.8 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 70 30 0 100 3.0 8.9 8.4 81.1 59.0 36.3 3.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.6 6.3 57.0 48.2 33.7 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 2.3 6.9 7.1 63.9 53.9 34.0 2.6 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 4.8 11.9 11.6 68.0 50.7 35.0 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.4 7.4 7.2 79.1 57.4 39.0 2.4 5.5 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------