***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 10.7 6.4 88.4 60.7 43.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.3 9.8 8.2 105.9 65.8 46.0 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 3.3 12.0 7.1 97.3 63.3 44.2 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.9 17.8 7.1 90.2 63.2 43.2 4.6 10.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.0 13.0 7.3 89.5 62.6 43.4 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.4 15.5 10.5 101.6 66.3 46.7 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.9 9.8 8.2 104.6 65.6 47.1 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 6.6 18.1 9.4 89.7 62.5 44.1 6.7 12.3 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.8 7.6 88.6 61.6 43.5 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.2 15.2 9.1 89.1 62.2 44.3 5.4 10.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 4.2 12.9 7.1 89.4 62.6 41.6 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.8 11.7 7.2 88.6 62.7 42.2 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.3 13.7 8.8 98.4 65.5 44.6 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 4.7 16.6 9.4 97.3 64.5 46.9 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.6 13.9 6.7 94.0 64.6 42.0 3.6 8.1 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 3.5 11.9 7.6 97.6 65.4 42.8 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.3 8.8 107.2 66.7 47.2 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.3 14.8 10.5 88.3 61.9 45.7 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 2.9 10.2 8.0 107.2 66.3 46.1 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 5.7 17.9 14.3 94.6 63.7 47.5 6.0 11.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.8 11.7 6.6 86.2 60.1 43.0 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.0 10.0 9.3 114.7 68.9 49.7 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 3.4 11.8 8.0 106.7 66.3 45.6 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 4.1 14.4 8.8 91.5 62.7 45.4 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 4.4 13.0 7.2 84.5 60.1 43.7 4.5 9.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.8 13.5 8.9 101.7 66.6 44.6 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.7 13.2 7.2 86.7 60.4 44.2 4.6 9.2 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 3.5 13.8 7.2 97.9 65.7 42.8 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 7.2 23.8 11.9 91.8 62.9 46.8 7.5 15.2 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.7 9.4 7.8 103.9 65.1 45.8 2.8 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------