***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2012.-30.09.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 48.0 32.6 93.2 55.5 48.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 23.5 45.3 37.2 105.1 62.1 53.6 23.2 34.8 49.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 47.8 48.6 35.4 98.6 58.5 50.7 27.5 40.6 56.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 61.5 59.4 36.1 92.1 55.0 47.9 36.1 53.5 74.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 47.0 44.2 37.0 91.9 55.2 48.1 26.1 39.5 55.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 47.2 52.4 51.4 107.6 63.0 54.1 28.5 40.9 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 46.3 48.8 36.5 102.2 61.1 53.8 25.6 38.6 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 45.4 72.3 44.2 92.1 54.6 48.4 44.9 65.8 90.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 47.8 43.7 37.6 89.9 53.2 46.5 28.2 40.9 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 53.6 49.7 44.5 92.3 54.5 48.3 31.6 45.6 62.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.3 45.5 36.0 94.6 57.1 49.4 28.2 39.8 53.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 26.6 46.4 36.7 95.8 57.5 49.5 26.9 39.8 55.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 45.8 51.0 44.2 105.3 62.7 54.0 26.5 39.1 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 64.7 60.4 44.6 93.7 55.1 48.8 36.4 54.4 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 41.4 39.7 33.0 91.6 56.0 48.6 21.8 34.5 50.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 42.2 44.5 39.3 101.3 60.8 52.3 23.2 35.2 49.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 24.8 46.1 37.4 102.4 60.7 53.0 24.4 36.6 51.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 59.9 54.6 51.1 92.3 53.6 48.1 34.4 50.8 70.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 48.3 51.9 37.1 105.0 62.0 53.0 27.4 40.6 56.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 46.8 64.4 59.1 88.3 50.9 46.6 48.0 63.6 81.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 50.3 47.4 34.2 92.6 55.2 48.3 26.6 42.1 60.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 47.4 51.1 39.6 105.8 62.4 53.0 27.1 39.9 55.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 46.5 47.5 37.0 100.8 59.7 51.2 27.4 39.3 53.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 59.5 55.9 43.4 94.2 55.1 48.7 33.0 49.8 70.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 53.1 48.0 35.6 88.0 52.1 46.4 31.9 46.4 62.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 41.2 48.3 41.2 111.1 65.2 54.6 22.3 34.5 49.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 52.4 46.3 35.4 90.1 53.1 47.4 27.5 42.9 61.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 40.9 42.2 36.1 97.2 58.6 50.9 22.5 34.6 49.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 92.1 81.4 53.2 89.1 50.9 46.5 58.2 79.9 104.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 43.4 45.6 36.1 102.9 60.9 52.8 23.6 35.6 50.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------