***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.3 14.9 0.7 60.7 58.3 10.9 11.8 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 14.4 0.6 59.5 57.6 10.4 11.5 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.4 15.0 0.7 61.7 59.2 12.8 13.8 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 10.8 10.4 12.4 0.7 62.1 59.9 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.1 12.8 0.7 62.4 59.5 9.3 10.4 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.5 10.3 10.7 0.8 65.5 62.1 8.4 9.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.2 14.5 0.5 58.2 56.6 10.9 11.8 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 6.7 6.4 10.7 0.8 64.7 61.2 4.2 5.4 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 12.6 12.5 13.0 0.8 65.3 61.3 10.8 11.7 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.1 11.5 0.8 65.3 61.5 10.3 11.2 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.6 12.4 0.8 65.5 61.6 9.7 10.7 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 10.3 10.1 11.5 0.8 64.3 60.8 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 11.0 11.0 11.4 0.9 67.6 62.9 9.0 10.0 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 12.8 12.7 12.8 0.8 65.4 61.9 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.1 13.0 14.1 0.9 67.3 63.7 11.1 12.0 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.5 12.0 0.9 66.1 61.9 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.5 14.1 0.5 58.8 57.0 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.8 10.8 0.8 65.8 62.0 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.2 14.5 0.6 60.8 58.6 10.7 11.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.0 9.1 0.8 65.7 61.9 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.9 14.1 0.7 62.4 59.4 10.2 11.2 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.6 14.2 0.6 60.6 58.4 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.8 14.5 0.8 63.5 60.5 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 12.4 12.2 12.7 0.8 65.5 62.0 10.4 11.3 12.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.0 13.8 0.6 59.1 57.1 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 11.3 11.2 11.0 0.9 66.4 62.3 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.3 12.5 14.3 0.6 59.6 57.4 10.8 11.9 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 11.0 10.7 12.7 0.8 63.7 60.9 8.8 9.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.2 10.2 0.8 65.8 61.9 8.1 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.3 12.5 14.7 0.6 59.7 57.8 11.0 12.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------