***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.7 14.4 0.6 64.4 62.1 10.6 11.2 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 11.4 11.8 14.0 0.6 64.5 61.9 10.4 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.9 14.5 0.6 64.5 62.3 12.7 13.4 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 9.6 9.6 11.9 0.7 67.2 64.8 8.2 8.9 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.7 12.1 0.6 64.9 62.6 9.5 10.1 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 9.9 10.0 10.2 0.8 71.1 67.9 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.6 11.9 14.2 0.6 64.1 61.7 10.8 11.4 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.6 9.9 0.5 64.9 62.5 4.4 5.0 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 11.9 11.8 12.3 0.6 67.0 64.3 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 11.6 11.5 10.7 0.6 65.8 63.2 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 11.2 11.1 11.6 0.6 67.4 64.6 10.0 10.5 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 9.8 9.8 10.6 0.5 65.2 62.7 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 10.6 10.6 10.6 0.7 69.2 65.9 9.4 10.0 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 12.2 12.1 12.2 0.6 66.0 63.3 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 12.4 12.5 13.5 1.0 74.8 71.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 12.0 12.0 11.1 0.7 68.7 65.7 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 12.2 12.1 13.8 0.6 66.0 62.9 10.9 11.5 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 10.5 10.4 10.0 0.5 65.2 62.6 9.1 9.8 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.8 14.0 0.6 64.3 61.9 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.2 6.4 8.2 0.4 62.9 60.7 5.4 6.0 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.0 11.3 13.5 0.5 64.0 61.8 10.2 10.8 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.1 13.8 0.6 64.9 62.2 10.0 10.6 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.4 14.0 0.6 65.0 62.6 10.1 10.7 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 11.6 11.5 12.0 0.6 66.4 63.7 10.4 11.0 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 11.5 11.8 13.3 0.5 62.4 60.6 10.6 11.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 10.8 10.8 10.2 0.7 69.4 66.2 9.6 10.2 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 11.8 12.1 13.8 0.6 63.6 61.4 10.7 11.5 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.4 12.2 0.7 69.3 66.8 9.1 9.7 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.4 9.3 0.5 63.7 61.3 8.2 8.9 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.1 14.3 0.6 64.2 61.8 10.9 11.6 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------