***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.0 23.5 23.8 -0.8 39.8 42.0 22.9 24.4 25.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 25.1 23.7 23.9 -0.8 40.2 42.4 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.3 23.8 23.8 -1.0 38.2 40.8 23.3 24.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.3 16.3 20.9 -1.2 35.7 38.9 16.0 17.7 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 25.9 23.6 21.6 -1.4 33.0 36.7 23.6 25.2 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 24.7 23.0 19.8 -1.0 38.4 41.0 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 24.7 23.5 23.9 -0.7 41.7 43.7 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.3 12.4 19.8 -1.3 34.7 38.2 12.2 13.7 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.5 23.3 22.2 -1.4 33.1 36.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 25.2 23.1 20.6 -1.4 33.4 37.1 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.6 23.5 21.7 -1.4 33.9 37.5 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 22.3 22.8 20.9 -1.2 35.7 38.9 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 23.3 23.8 21.1 -1.3 34.6 37.8 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.2 23.7 22.1 -1.0 38.3 41.0 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.8 24.5 23.0 -0.8 40.4 43.0 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.8 24.3 21.4 -1.2 35.4 38.5 24.1 25.7 27.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 24.1 23.0 23.6 -0.6 42.6 44.6 22.1 23.6 24.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 22.4 19.9 -1.3 34.9 38.3 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 24.9 23.5 23.8 -0.9 39.7 41.9 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.4 18.6 18.0 -1.2 35.7 39.3 18.3 19.8 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.6 23.6 23.0 -1.3 34.0 37.5 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 24.7 23.6 23.6 -0.6 42.4 44.6 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.0 23.7 23.8 -0.8 40.6 42.7 23.1 24.5 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.0 23.3 21.9 -1.1 36.5 39.6 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.3 23.4 22.1 -1.2 35.1 38.2 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 25.7 24.0 20.7 -1.0 38.5 41.2 23.5 25.0 26.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.1 23.6 23.0 -0.9 39.2 41.6 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.9 24.1 21.7 -1.1 36.8 39.9 23.7 25.2 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.6 17.9 19.2 -1.2 35.7 39.2 17.7 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 24.9 23.6 24.0 -0.8 40.4 42.5 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------