***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 23.3 21.7 22.5 -1.0 39.5 41.3 21.1 22.6 24.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.8 22.3 22.6 -0.9 40.1 41.6 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 21.5 22.3 22.7 -1.0 39.4 41.2 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 14.4 15.2 20.3 -1.1 37.5 39.6 14.7 16.3 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 21.8 22.4 20.6 -1.4 34.6 37.4 22.2 23.8 25.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 21.3 21.8 18.8 -1.2 36.5 39.6 21.5 23.1 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 23.4 22.0 22.6 -0.8 40.9 42.3 21.2 22.8 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.6 11.7 19.1 -1.3 35.7 38.8 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 21.5 22.0 20.8 -1.5 34.7 37.5 21.9 23.5 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 21.3 21.8 19.7 -1.4 35.3 38.2 21.5 23.2 24.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 21.9 22.3 20.4 -1.4 35.2 38.1 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.1 21.6 20.0 -1.4 35.1 38.3 21.4 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 22.1 22.5 19.4 -1.6 33.3 36.7 22.5 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 21.1 22.1 20.8 -1.1 38.0 40.1 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 21.9 22.9 21.4 -0.7 41.6 43.0 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 22.8 23.3 20.1 -1.4 35.0 38.1 23.1 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 23.0 21.7 22.5 -0.7 42.1 43.2 20.8 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 20.6 21.1 19.3 -1.3 36.4 39.2 20.8 22.4 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.0 22.7 -0.9 39.9 41.6 21.3 22.9 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.5 17.6 17.0 -1.2 36.7 39.7 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.1 21.7 -1.4 35.6 38.1 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.4 22.4 -0.7 42.5 43.5 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 21.3 22.2 22.7 -0.9 40.2 41.9 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 21.2 21.9 20.8 -1.2 37.4 39.8 21.5 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.4 21.9 20.6 -1.3 36.1 38.3 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.9 22.7 19.8 -1.1 37.6 40.2 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 23.6 22.0 21.6 -1.0 38.9 40.7 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 22.1 22.8 20.7 -1.0 38.6 40.6 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.8 16.8 18.4 -1.3 36.5 39.3 16.4 18.1 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 23.6 22.1 22.6 -0.9 40.2 41.8 21.4 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------