***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 20.3 22.0 21.8 -0.1 49.0 49.1 20.7 22.1 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 20.8 22.3 21.9 -0.2 48.2 48.6 21.1 22.5 23.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 20.7 22.4 22.1 -0.2 48.0 48.3 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.3 19.6 -0.2 48.0 48.4 13.9 15.5 16.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 20.9 22.3 19.9 -0.6 43.2 44.6 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 20.1 21.8 18.3 -0.3 46.5 46.9 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 20.5 22.0 21.9 0.0 49.6 49.6 20.8 22.1 23.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 9.8 11.4 18.5 -0.5 43.7 44.6 10.4 11.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 20.4 21.9 20.2 -0.6 42.7 44.1 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 19.9 21.6 19.1 -0.6 43.1 44.4 20.6 22.2 23.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 20.5 22.1 19.8 -0.5 43.6 44.6 21.1 22.7 24.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 19.9 21.5 19.5 -0.5 43.7 44.6 20.5 22.0 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 20.9 22.3 19.0 -0.6 42.9 44.0 21.4 22.9 24.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 20.4 22.1 20.2 -0.5 44.8 45.8 21.0 22.6 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 21.2 22.9 20.7 0.2 52.9 52.0 21.4 22.7 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 21.5 23.0 19.6 -0.5 44.6 45.4 22.0 23.5 24.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 20.3 21.7 21.6 -0.1 48.9 49.1 20.5 21.8 23.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 19.3 21.0 18.8 -0.5 44.0 45.1 20.0 21.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 20.4 22.0 22.0 -0.2 47.9 48.4 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 15.5 17.0 16.5 -0.5 43.9 45.0 16.0 17.6 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 20.6 22.1 21.0 -0.5 43.9 45.1 21.1 22.6 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 23.1 22.3 21.6 -0.1 48.7 48.8 21.0 22.4 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 20.6 22.2 22.0 -0.2 48.2 48.5 20.9 22.4 23.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 20.2 21.9 20.2 -0.4 45.0 45.9 20.8 22.3 23.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.8 20.0 -0.3 45.8 46.8 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 20.8 22.5 19.3 -0.2 47.7 47.3 21.2 22.7 24.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 20.5 22.0 21.0 -0.1 48.3 48.7 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 21.1 22.8 20.0 -0.1 49.1 49.0 21.3 22.9 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 14.7 16.3 17.9 -0.6 43.5 44.8 15.3 16.9 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.5 22.1 22.0 -0.1 49.0 49.2 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------