***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 22.3 23.1 23.5 -0.3 44.8 45.4 22.5 23.4 24.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.3 23.5 -0.4 43.6 44.4 22.7 23.7 24.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.3 23.5 -0.5 41.2 42.5 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.1 16.2 20.9 -0.5 41.4 42.4 15.7 16.7 17.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 23.0 23.3 21.3 -1.0 33.9 36.2 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 23.7 22.7 19.5 -0.6 39.3 41.0 22.3 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 23.7 23.1 23.6 -0.3 45.9 46.2 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 11.8 12.1 19.5 -0.9 33.9 36.5 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 22.6 23.0 21.8 -1.0 33.7 36.1 22.9 23.9 24.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 22.2 22.5 20.3 -1.0 32.5 35.3 22.5 23.6 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 22.8 23.1 21.3 -1.0 33.7 36.2 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.1 22.4 20.6 -0.9 34.8 37.2 22.3 23.3 24.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 23.1 23.4 20.6 -1.0 33.5 36.1 23.3 24.3 25.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.0 21.6 -0.7 37.2 39.1 22.7 23.7 24.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 24.5 24.2 22.9 0.1 51.0 50.5 23.2 24.2 25.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 23.7 24.1 21.1 -0.8 36.0 38.1 23.9 24.9 25.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 23.3 22.7 23.3 -0.2 46.4 46.7 22.0 22.9 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 21.5 21.8 19.6 -1.0 33.3 36.0 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 23.9 23.0 23.5 -0.5 42.4 43.5 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 17.8 18.1 17.6 -0.9 34.1 36.8 18.0 18.9 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 22.6 23.1 22.6 -0.9 35.6 37.7 23.0 23.9 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 23.9 23.3 23.2 -0.3 44.8 45.3 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.2 23.4 -0.4 42.5 43.6 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 22.3 22.7 21.5 -0.8 36.2 38.4 22.6 23.5 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 22.4 23.0 21.7 -0.7 39.2 40.5 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 22.9 23.5 20.5 -0.6 39.6 41.2 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.4 23.2 22.7 -0.4 44.1 44.7 22.6 23.6 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.7 23.9 21.6 -0.4 43.5 44.2 23.3 24.3 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 17.1 17.4 18.9 -1.0 33.3 36.0 17.3 18.3 19.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 23.9 23.2 23.6 -0.4 44.2 44.9 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------