***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 14.0 22.1 26.8 206.0 86.2 78.0 2.7 5.8 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 11.8 17.7 23.7 203.5 85.7 78.4 2.6 5.2 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 14.7 24.4 26.5 215.9 87.6 81.3 2.8 5.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 21.8 29.1 24.1 173.1 81.4 74.7 4.9 9.9 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 15.1 23.2 27.2 215.3 87.1 80.5 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 19.4 28.4 24.5 183.4 83.6 75.7 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 15.9 21.8 22.3 185.3 83.2 74.5 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 36.1 55.1 31.0 206.6 86.3 80.1 7.3 14.9 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 16.0 30.4 31.2 253.0 91.1 84.6 3.1 6.5 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 18.2 31.4 34.8 236.1 89.9 84.4 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 16.0 24.0 26.7 213.6 87.0 80.5 4.3 7.7 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 21 79 100 20.5 31.6 25.0 201.3 85.7 78.4 4.5 9.2 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 17.1 25.9 22.3 186.1 83.7 73.4 4.3 8.3 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 23 77 100 18.0 30.1 32.3 204.6 86.7 79.8 3.8 7.8 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.9 14.2 16.8 146.4 76.9 67.8 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 17.1 25.7 23.0 188.1 83.9 75.9 3.3 7.3 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 14.5 22.4 23.9 204.1 86.0 77.0 2.8 6.0 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 19.5 30.8 34.0 207.7 87.5 81.1 4.5 8.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 18.5 28.6 24.2 202.0 85.6 79.6 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 22.5 31.0 29.4 173.0 81.9 73.3 6.3 11.6 18.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 15.6 28.7 30.4 243.5 90.3 83.4 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 17.7 25.4 23.3 187.7 83.9 76.2 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 14.4 21.3 24.2 186.9 83.7 78.2 2.7 5.9 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 17.8 31.0 30.7 215.8 88.1 81.1 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 16.0 25.5 28.3 206.4 86.0 78.5 2.7 6.3 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 7.7 13.2 13.6 129.0 72.8 63.2 3.1 6.2 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 14.0 21.6 26.8 198.0 85.1 77.2 2.5 5.7 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 13.4 17.4 22.0 165.6 80.0 72.5 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 30.4 45.7 32.2 194.0 85.5 78.4 7.2 13.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 16.0 23.8 23.3 196.7 84.9 78.3 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------