***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 21.2 30.1 19.6 174.6 81.7 66.0 4.2 9.2 16.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 17.6 24.7 17.8 173.5 81.5 64.7 4.5 8.7 14.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 16.2 24.1 20.3 175.3 82.0 66.1 3.2 7.1 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 17.4 31.8 26.1 226.2 87.9 70.8 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 15.5 29.8 23.7 216.6 87.2 68.4 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 11.5 20.1 28.6 210.5 86.6 74.6 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 16.8 24.1 17.1 169.1 80.8 62.3 3.8 8.0 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 21.2 33.4 23.3 189.4 84.2 66.7 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 14.9 26.9 23.8 210.6 86.5 68.2 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 16.8 25.3 23.5 189.8 84.1 65.8 4.5 8.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 13.2 23.0 24.0 204.6 86.4 69.0 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.4 21.9 22.4 192.5 84.5 68.5 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 12.7 19.8 25.8 201.5 85.3 71.1 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 22.8 29.9 22.1 155.4 78.5 66.2 4.5 10.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 10.8 19.9 24.8 222.9 87.1 69.0 2.3 4.9 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 12.9 20.9 24.9 207.7 86.2 71.0 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 19.6 25.1 15.2 150.4 77.6 60.5 4.6 9.4 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 21.0 31.4 26.0 187.6 83.9 70.0 5.6 10.6 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 17.2 24.1 18.2 172.4 81.3 64.9 4.3 8.5 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 24.1 34.9 28.1 178.8 83.1 68.8 7.3 13.1 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 17.1 27.1 21.7 191.5 84.0 66.3 4.2 8.4 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.7 22.5 15.9 150.1 77.4 58.7 3.9 8.3 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 15.2 21.9 19.3 173.6 81.6 67.0 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 20.0 30.6 23.9 183.8 83.3 69.9 3.7 8.3 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 19.9 27.7 21.1 171.9 81.3 68.0 4.2 9.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 12.4 20.0 24.4 182.1 83.2 70.5 2.2 5.1 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 20.4 27.9 20.0 166.3 80.4 66.2 4.0 8.8 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 10.3 19.3 25.2 233.0 88.3 70.5 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 28.7 40.8 26.8 177.6 82.7 68.9 7.9 14.7 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 16.2 23.1 18.7 175.0 81.8 64.5 4.6 8.5 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------