***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.09.2018.-23.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.7 11.5 10.8 107.1 67.3 51.6 3.3 6.5 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.8 12.8 10.5 106.8 67.7 52.6 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 10.7 13.4 10.4 103.4 66.1 51.2 4.2 7.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.5 16.2 12.8 116.1 70.1 53.8 3.9 8.1 14.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.1 12.0 11.8 116.8 70.0 54.5 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.2 13.3 14.4 129.9 73.3 59.1 3.4 6.4 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.7 10.6 106.9 67.9 52.0 4.1 7.8 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 21.2 20.7 12.6 119.1 70.3 56.3 4.7 10.0 17.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.7 13.1 11.6 108.4 67.4 51.4 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.1 13.5 12.7 111.2 68.0 52.6 3.8 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.2 13.6 11.7 125.7 72.2 56.8 2.7 5.8 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 11.9 12.8 11.7 130.7 73.5 58.9 2.9 5.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 13.9 16.7 13.7 144.6 76.4 60.8 3.2 6.5 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.3 17.8 13.2 108.1 67.2 51.5 4.1 9.2 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 12.6 11.0 109.9 69.1 51.6 2.6 5.9 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 11.3 13.0 13.0 140.5 75.6 59.2 2.6 5.3 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.6 11.6 10.1 100.7 66.1 51.4 4.0 7.3 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.1 15.4 14.3 117.3 69.5 55.2 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.1 13.0 10.4 105.9 67.3 51.7 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 18.5 18.8 16.3 124.0 71.5 58.8 4.1 8.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.5 15.1 10.8 106.3 67.1 51.2 3.4 7.8 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.2 10.6 104.4 67.0 50.8 3.3 6.7 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.0 13.0 10.3 105.4 66.9 50.8 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.7 17.1 12.4 107.9 66.9 51.9 3.7 8.6 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.2 14.0 12.8 114.6 69.6 54.3 3.6 7.2 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 12.5 15.0 13.3 142.2 76.1 59.5 3.6 6.8 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.9 14.5 12.5 116.6 70.0 53.8 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 13.2 12.2 120.3 71.3 53.8 2.6 5.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.5 24.7 15.2 122.4 70.9 57.6 5.5 11.6 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 8.1 11.0 10.6 106.8 67.5 52.6 2.4 5.5 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------