***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.5 10.7 93.0 63.2 45.3 3.3 7.1 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.3 9.6 10.4 99.5 64.8 44.2 3.4 6.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.0 12.9 11.5 100.3 65.4 46.3 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 5.2 17.6 11.3 91.3 62.8 44.0 4.6 10.5 19.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.6 11.0 96.3 64.1 45.2 3.9 8.2 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.4 15.3 12.4 101.7 66.0 48.6 4.4 8.9 15.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.9 9.5 10.2 98.8 64.7 44.5 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 7.3 19.5 12.4 100.1 64.9 50.0 6.7 12.3 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.1 11.6 100.0 64.8 46.3 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.8 16.7 12.8 100.4 64.9 49.5 5.4 10.2 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.9 13.6 10.6 96.4 63.9 46.1 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.1 12.7 10.7 99.2 65.1 46.8 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.1 14.3 12.0 104.6 67.0 46.1 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.6 17.7 14.7 105.3 66.4 48.9 5.0 10.1 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.8 14.8 11.6 100.7 66.2 43.0 3.6 8.1 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.8 11.7 10.9 97.7 64.8 45.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.0 10.5 103.1 65.6 44.8 2.8 5.1 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.1 17.7 15.0 107.1 66.8 53.9 4.3 9.5 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.0 9.8 10.9 100.1 65.0 44.6 2.9 5.9 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.5 21.1 17.7 113.4 68.8 56.4 6.0 11.4 19.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.5 13.1 10.8 95.4 63.6 46.3 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.9 8.7 10.9 97.5 64.1 44.9 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.8 11.8 12.0 103.9 66.1 45.5 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.9 16.9 13.9 107.8 67.1 50.4 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.0 14.3 11.4 91.9 63.0 46.3 4.5 9.2 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.8 14.6 12.5 111.7 69.1 47.7 4.1 7.9 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.0 14.2 10.8 90.3 62.4 45.3 4.6 9.2 16.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 3.6 13.0 10.8 94.1 63.8 43.5 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 20.6 27.5 15.9 108.5 67.3 55.1 7.5 15.2 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.3 10.7 98.4 64.9 45.0 2.8 5.5 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------