***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-30.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 65.9 80.4 67.9 148.2 79.9 70.2 24.2 38.8 56.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 55.6 66.2 62.4 147.9 79.1 70.5 23.2 34.8 49.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 61.5 78.0 68.6 151.5 80.6 71.6 27.5 40.6 56.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 81.3 99.9 74.2 152.0 79.9 71.1 36.1 53.5 74.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 62.8 83.8 73.6 163.3 83.7 73.7 26.1 39.5 55.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 64.1 79.3 79.9 159.1 82.8 74.7 28.5 40.9 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 60.0 69.6 60.2 142.1 77.4 68.0 25.6 38.6 54.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 103.3 131.3 79.4 158.3 83.0 74.9 44.9 65.8 90.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 63.5 88.1 78.1 170.4 86.0 76.4 28.2 40.9 56.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 70.5 93.2 83.8 163.4 84.8 76.5 31.6 45.6 62.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 59.7 77.3 73.0 164.2 83.8 75.1 28.2 39.8 53.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 28 72 100 62.7 79.4 69.7 159.6 82.3 73.8 26.9 39.8 55.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 62.2 79.6 73.8 161.6 82.9 73.5 26.5 39.1 54.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 85.1 103.1 82.3 146.6 79.7 71.0 36.4 54.4 76.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 56.3 66.3 64.3 145.3 77.2 67.4 21.8 34.5 50.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 57.8 73.5 71.8 161.0 82.6 73.8 23.2 35.2 49.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 56.4 66.3 59.7 142.1 77.5 68.6 24.4 36.6 51.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 81.3 105.0 89.3 158.1 84.1 76.7 34.4 50.8 70.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 62.2 74.6 63.6 147.4 79.1 70.8 27.4 40.6 56.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 89.5 105.4 91.5 150.4 81.8 73.9 48.0 63.6 81.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 68.6 94.0 73.8 162.7 83.3 74.5 26.6 42.1 60.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 59.7 67.9 60.7 137.0 75.9 67.0 27.1 39.9 55.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 57.8 69.1 65.7 145.0 78.5 70.1 27.4 39.3 53.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 81.0 103.8 80.9 156.7 82.8 74.3 33.0 49.8 70.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 71.6 82.9 73.6 148.4 79.5 71.2 31.9 46.4 62.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 54.6 64.7 63.9 143.5 77.7 67.5 22.3 34.5 49.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 71.7 84.6 70.1 145.4 79.0 69.9 27.5 42.9 61.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 56.0 69.5 70.2 154.0 80.0 70.9 22.5 34.6 49.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 116.9 144.6 90.2 153.5 82.9 75.4 58.2 79.9 104.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 56.9 67.9 63.3 146.1 78.6 69.8 23.6 35.6 50.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------