***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.0 14.3 -0.9 35.9 36.4 10.8 11.7 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 10.5 10.7 13.9 -1.1 32.2 32.8 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 14.2 13.2 14.5 -0.8 37.3 37.7 12.9 13.9 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 9.4 8.6 12.0 -0.5 41.3 41.7 8.0 9.2 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 10.8 10.0 12.7 -0.6 39.9 40.3 9.6 10.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 89 11 100 9.9 9.4 10.0 -0.5 42.1 42.4 8.9 9.8 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.3 11.2 14.1 -1.0 33.8 34.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 5.5 4.4 10.0 -0.7 36.7 37.2 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 11.9 11.2 12.9 -0.5 40.9 41.2 10.8 11.7 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 11.7 10.8 11.0 -0.7 36.9 37.4 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 89 11 100 11.3 10.7 12.3 -0.5 41.2 41.5 10.3 11.1 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 9.8 9.2 11.1 -0.6 40.4 40.8 8.8 9.6 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 10.7 10.2 11.2 -0.5 42.4 42.8 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.5 12.4 -0.8 35.2 35.9 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 95 5 100 12.5 12.5 14.3 0.0 50.3 50.3 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 92 8 100 12.1 11.8 11.9 -0.2 45.8 46.0 11.1 12.0 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 11.2 11.4 13.6 -1.1 31.4 32.0 11.5 12.3 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.7 9.5 10.3 -0.8 36.5 37.0 9.3 10.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 10.8 11.1 14.0 -1.0 33.5 34.0 11.0 11.8 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.8 5.6 8.4 -0.8 35.6 36.1 5.5 6.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.6 10.7 13.8 -0.7 38.1 38.5 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 10.3 10.6 13.9 -1.1 31.1 31.7 10.7 11.4 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.2 10.5 14.1 -0.9 35.1 35.6 10.4 11.2 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 12.0 11.2 12.5 -0.6 38.5 38.9 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.9 13.4 -1.0 34.9 35.4 10.8 11.7 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.0 10.3 10.3 -0.7 39.2 39.8 10.0 10.8 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.9 13.7 -1.0 35.2 35.8 10.7 12.0 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 93 7 100 10.3 10.1 12.7 -0.2 47.2 47.3 9.5 10.2 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.3 9.5 -0.9 34.1 34.7 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.5 11.3 14.3 -1.0 34.0 34.5 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------