***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.6 13.5 -0.3 45.0 46.0 9.8 10.8 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.3 10.6 13.2 -0.2 46.0 47.1 9.8 10.8 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.0 13.8 0.0 49.5 49.3 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.7 11.2 0.1 51.8 51.4 7.6 8.6 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 8.5 10.0 11.3 0.1 51.8 51.2 8.9 9.9 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 8.0 9.3 9.6 0.1 53.1 52.8 8.2 9.1 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.5 10.9 13.4 -0.2 45.9 47.2 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.2 9.5 0.1 52.6 52.5 4.0 5.0 6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 9.7 11.1 11.6 0.1 52.9 52.0 10.0 10.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.8 10.2 0.1 52.4 52.1 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 9.1 10.4 10.8 0.2 54.0 52.9 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 8.1 9.5 10.1 0.2 54.9 53.9 8.3 9.3 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 8.5 9.9 9.6 0.1 52.4 52.5 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 10.3 11.2 11.4 -0.1 48.7 49.9 10.5 11.3 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 10.3 11.6 12.4 0.3 55.9 54.6 10.6 11.3 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.3 10.3 0.2 54.7 53.6 10.2 11.1 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.0 13.0 -0.2 46.5 47.6 10.2 11.2 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.9 9.4 0.2 53.6 53.5 8.6 9.7 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.4 10.9 13.3 -0.2 47.2 48.0 10.1 11.0 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.7 5.9 7.6 0.0 50.4 51.8 5.0 5.9 6.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.3 10.5 12.8 0.0 49.4 49.2 9.6 10.6 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.5 9.9 12.9 -0.2 46.0 47.6 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.6 13.3 0.0 49.8 50.1 9.5 10.6 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 9.7 10.9 11.4 0.2 53.7 53.1 9.8 10.7 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 10.0 10.9 12.1 -0.3 44.5 45.8 10.2 11.2 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 8.8 10.1 9.4 0.1 51.2 51.9 9.1 10.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 9.7 10.9 12.8 -0.3 44.6 46.0 10.0 11.3 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 8.4 9.8 11.5 0.3 55.1 53.7 8.6 9.5 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.9 8.9 0.1 51.7 52.4 7.8 8.8 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 9.9 10.9 13.5 -0.2 45.9 46.9 10.1 11.2 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------