***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9.1 10.1 12.4 0.0 49.2 48.7 9.2 10.2 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 8.9 10.1 12.1 -0.1 48.1 47.9 9.0 10.2 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 11.1 12.4 12.6 0.1 51.2 50.1 11.3 12.3 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.4 7.8 9.7 -0.1 48.6 48.3 6.6 7.9 9.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 7.7 9.2 9.9 0.0 49.1 49.0 8.1 9.3 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.3 8.1 -0.2 47.1 48.2 7.5 8.5 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.3 10.2 12.1 -0.2 47.2 47.2 9.4 10.4 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 3.0 4.1 8.2 0.0 50.1 50.3 3.2 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 9.0 10.3 10.3 0.1 51.1 50.5 9.3 10.2 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 8.9 10.0 8.9 0.0 50.6 50.4 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 8.4 9.6 9.4 0.0 49.3 49.5 8.7 9.6 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 7.4 8.5 8.7 0.0 49.3 49.7 7.6 8.5 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 8.1 9.0 8.1 -0.3 45.4 47.2 8.3 9.2 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 9.6 10.6 10.2 0.0 50.1 49.9 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 9.4 10.4 10.8 0.0 49.5 48.9 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 9.3 10.3 8.9 -0.1 47.8 48.6 9.5 10.4 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 9.2 10.2 11.8 -0.1 47.9 48.0 9.4 10.3 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.8 9.0 8.1 0.1 51.1 51.0 8.1 9.0 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 9.1 10.2 12.2 0.0 49.3 48.8 9.3 10.2 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 5.1 6.3 -0.1 48.1 49.3 4.4 5.2 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.9 11.6 0.0 50.5 49.8 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.3 11.7 -0.1 47.9 48.1 8.5 9.4 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.6 9.8 12.1 0.1 51.5 50.5 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.8 9.9 10.0 0.1 52.0 51.2 9.0 9.8 10.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 8.9 10.2 11.0 -0.1 48.3 48.1 9.2 10.3 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.1 8.0 -0.3 45.6 47.3 8.4 9.3 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 8.8 10.3 11.7 -0.1 48.1 48.0 9.1 10.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 7.7 8.8 9.9 -0.1 48.6 48.5 7.9 8.9 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.9 7.6 0.0 49.2 49.8 6.8 7.9 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.1 10.5 12.3 -0.1 48.2 47.9 9.5 10.6 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------