***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.0 13.8 -0.2 45.3 46.3 10.5 11.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.7 13.5 -0.3 42.6 44.2 10.3 11.1 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.5 13.2 14.1 0.0 49.2 49.3 12.6 13.3 13.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.1 8.8 11.4 0.0 50.5 50.4 8.0 8.8 9.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.1 11.8 0.0 50.7 50.5 9.4 10.0 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.2 9.6 0.0 50.3 50.5 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.1 13.6 -0.3 43.1 44.6 10.7 11.3 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.9 9.6 0.0 48.7 49.0 4.3 4.9 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.3 12.1 0.1 53.9 52.9 10.6 11.1 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.1 10.8 10.4 0.0 50.0 50.0 10.3 10.8 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.5 11.3 0.1 51.8 51.3 9.9 10.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.2 10.4 0.1 51.8 51.4 8.6 9.2 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.1 9.9 10.1 0.0 49.5 49.8 9.3 9.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 11.7 11.4 11.8 -0.1 47.7 48.4 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.8 12.9 0.3 58.4 56.8 11.0 11.5 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.5 11.4 10.8 0.1 53.7 53.1 10.7 11.3 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.2 13.2 -0.3 42.1 43.8 10.9 11.5 12.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.7 9.7 0.0 51.0 50.9 9.0 9.7 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.0 13.6 -0.2 44.6 45.7 10.6 11.2 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.8 7.8 -0.1 46.6 47.7 5.3 5.9 6.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.7 13.2 0.0 49.6 49.5 10.1 10.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.2 13.2 -0.3 41.6 43.1 9.9 10.5 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.6 13.6 -0.1 48.4 48.8 10.0 10.7 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.0 11.8 0.1 53.0 52.4 10.3 10.9 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.0 12.7 -0.2 44.1 45.3 10.5 11.2 11.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.0 9.7 -0.1 48.0 48.7 9.5 10.1 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.2 13.2 -0.2 44.5 45.8 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.8 11.8 0.2 55.5 54.3 9.0 9.6 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 9.1 8.7 9.1 -0.1 47.6 48.4 8.1 8.8 9.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.2 13.8 -0.2 43.8 45.1 10.8 11.5 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------