***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 22.3 22.7 23.4 -1.6 32.4 33.5 22.8 24.4 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 22.3 22.7 23.4 -1.8 30.9 32.3 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 25.0 23.2 23.8 -1.3 35.5 36.6 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 17.5 16.8 21.5 -0.4 45.9 46.3 15.6 17.2 18.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 25.3 23.9 22.4 -0.9 40.2 40.9 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.3 22.8 19.9 -1.0 38.9 39.7 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 21.9 22.3 23.2 -1.9 29.6 31.0 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 13.6 12.6 20.4 -0.7 42.2 42.9 11.8 13.2 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 24.8 24.0 23.6 -0.5 44.3 44.8 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 24.4 23.4 21.5 -0.7 42.2 42.9 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 24.9 23.8 22.8 -0.8 41.2 42.0 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 24.2 23.4 21.8 -0.5 44.8 45.3 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 25.4 23.9 22.1 -1.1 38.3 39.1 23.4 24.9 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.8 23.2 22.7 -1.1 37.3 38.2 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 25.2 24.9 24.3 -0.1 48.2 48.4 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 25.8 24.7 22.3 -0.7 42.1 42.8 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 21.6 22.0 22.9 -1.9 30.1 31.5 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 23.6 22.4 20.5 -0.8 40.9 41.8 21.8 23.2 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 22.4 22.8 23.7 -1.5 33.7 34.9 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 19.9 18.5 18.4 -0.9 40.2 41.1 17.9 19.4 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.1 23.4 23.7 -1.1 37.2 38.1 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 22.1 22.4 22.9 -1.9 29.7 31.0 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 24.7 23.4 24.2 -0.9 40.1 40.8 22.8 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 24.4 23.2 22.8 -0.8 40.3 41.2 22.5 24.0 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 22.5 23.0 22.2 -1.6 32.5 33.6 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 25.0 23.9 21.1 -0.7 41.7 42.4 23.2 24.6 25.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 22.3 22.7 22.6 -1.7 31.1 32.2 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 25.2 24.8 22.8 -0.1 48.4 48.6 23.6 25.0 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.2 17.7 19.6 -1.0 38.5 39.5 17.2 18.7 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 22.2 22.6 23.5 -1.7 31.4 32.6 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------