***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.2 24.6 -0.1 48.8 48.6 22.7 24.3 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.1 24.6 -0.2 47.6 47.8 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 22.7 24.8 25.2 0.2 52.9 51.3 23.1 24.5 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.7 23.1 1.0 61.7 57.5 15.9 17.6 19.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.7 23.7 0.5 56.4 53.8 23.5 25.1 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.8 25.0 21.7 0.8 59.8 56.5 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 22.2 23.8 24.4 -0.3 46.7 47.2 22.5 24.0 25.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.4 22.0 0.7 58.7 55.1 12.2 13.6 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 23.0 25.5 24.5 0.7 58.9 55.4 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 22.8 25.2 22.9 0.7 58.1 54.7 23.0 24.5 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.6 25.6 23.9 0.7 58.1 54.9 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 24.8 25.2 23.2 0.9 60.9 56.7 22.6 24.2 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.9 23.2 0.6 56.8 54.3 23.6 25.2 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.7 23.5 0.1 51.8 50.7 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.4 24.9 1.1 64.0 59.6 23.7 25.2 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.4 26.7 23.7 0.9 60.1 56.5 24.1 25.7 27.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 21.6 23.0 24.0 -0.4 44.9 46.1 21.9 23.4 24.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 21.8 24.2 22.1 0.6 57.0 54.1 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.2 24.9 0.0 50.2 49.6 22.7 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.0 20.3 19.9 0.5 56.5 53.7 18.3 19.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 23.1 25.2 24.8 0.3 53.9 52.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 24.7 23.5 23.9 -0.6 43.0 44.5 22.6 24.1 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 25.0 24.8 25.3 0.5 56.0 53.7 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 22.6 24.9 23.9 0.6 56.7 53.9 22.9 24.4 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.6 24.4 23.3 0.0 49.7 49.4 22.9 24.5 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 25.6 26.1 23.0 1.0 62.6 58.6 23.4 25.0 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 22.5 24.2 23.8 -0.2 48.0 48.3 22.8 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 25.9 26.5 24.0 1.1 63.9 59.2 23.8 25.3 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 17.3 19.4 21.1 0.4 54.4 52.4 17.6 19.1 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 22.4 24.0 24.7 -0.1 48.5 48.3 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------