***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 21.0 21.9 22.6 -0.8 40.2 41.9 21.3 22.7 24.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 21.4 22.3 22.5 -0.9 39.5 41.0 21.7 23.3 24.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 21.6 22.8 23.2 -0.5 44.0 44.6 21.8 23.4 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.4 16.4 21.4 0.0 49.7 49.2 14.8 16.4 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 21.8 23.5 21.6 -0.3 45.9 46.5 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 20.9 22.6 19.5 -0.4 44.4 47.0 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 20.9 21.9 22.4 -0.9 38.9 40.5 21.3 22.8 24.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.0 12.7 20.2 -0.2 48.0 48.2 11.4 12.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 21.6 23.2 22.0 -0.3 46.4 46.7 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 21.1 22.9 20.8 -0.2 47.1 47.4 21.5 23.2 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 21.7 23.5 21.5 -0.2 47.9 48.2 22.1 23.7 25.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 20.8 22.9 21.4 -0.1 49.1 49.2 21.3 23.0 24.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 21.9 23.7 20.7 -0.4 45.7 47.4 22.4 24.1 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 21.1 22.6 21.3 -0.6 42.7 43.9 21.5 23.3 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 21.9 23.6 22.1 0.0 50.0 49.8 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 22.5 24.5 21.4 -0.1 49.1 49.4 23.0 24.6 26.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 20.4 21.4 22.1 -1.1 37.1 38.8 21.0 22.4 23.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 20.3 22.2 20.4 -0.2 47.2 47.5 20.8 22.5 24.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 21.2 22.3 22.8 -0.7 41.6 42.6 21.5 23.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 16.7 18.6 18.1 -0.3 46.9 47.2 17.2 18.8 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 21.7 22.8 22.4 -0.6 43.0 44.1 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 21.0 22.0 22.0 -1.1 37.1 38.9 21.6 23.2 24.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 23.8 22.7 23.1 -0.4 45.2 45.4 21.6 23.2 24.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 21.0 22.8 21.6 -0.3 46.5 46.7 21.4 23.1 24.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 21.4 22.3 21.1 -0.8 40.1 42.0 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 21.8 23.8 21.1 0.0 49.8 50.3 22.2 23.9 25.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 21.3 22.2 21.7 -0.9 39.2 41.3 21.6 23.1 24.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 21.8 23.9 21.7 0.1 50.8 50.3 22.3 23.8 25.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 15.9 17.7 19.4 -0.4 45.5 46.4 16.4 18.1 19.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 21.2 22.2 22.7 -0.8 40.5 41.9 21.5 23.0 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------