***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 19.7 21.8 21.5 0.0 50.1 48.6 20.2 21.8 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.5 22.2 21.6 0.0 49.9 48.5 20.8 22.2 23.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.4 22.5 22.0 0.2 52.5 50.1 20.7 22.3 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 13.1 15.5 19.9 0.4 54.8 52.2 13.4 15.0 16.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 20.5 22.7 20.3 0.1 51.4 50.0 20.9 22.5 24.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 19.7 21.5 18.1 -0.1 49.0 49.8 20.0 21.6 23.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 20.1 21.8 21.5 0.0 49.7 48.4 20.4 21.8 23.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 9.7 11.8 18.9 0.2 52.6 51.2 10.1 11.6 12.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 20.0 22.4 20.7 0.2 52.3 50.4 20.6 22.2 23.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 19.8 22.1 19.6 0.2 52.5 50.8 20.2 21.8 23.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 20.3 22.5 20.2 0.2 52.6 51.0 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 19.6 22.0 19.9 0.3 53.7 51.9 20.0 21.7 23.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 20.5 22.8 19.4 0.2 52.4 51.4 20.9 22.6 24.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 20.4 22.6 20.4 0.2 52.0 50.3 20.7 22.4 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 20.6 22.6 20.5 0.4 54.6 52.4 20.9 22.2 23.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 21.2 23.5 20.1 0.4 54.1 52.2 21.5 23.1 24.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 19.8 21.4 21.3 -0.1 49.4 48.2 20.2 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 19.4 21.6 19.3 0.3 53.6 51.6 19.6 21.2 22.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 20.1 22.0 21.8 0.1 51.3 49.4 20.4 21.9 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 15.4 17.5 16.9 0.3 53.1 51.5 15.6 17.2 18.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 20.2 22.4 21.3 0.1 50.8 49.3 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 20.4 22.1 21.2 -0.1 49.2 48.2 20.8 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 20.3 22.5 22.0 0.4 54.2 51.4 20.6 22.1 23.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 20.1 22.5 20.6 0.4 54.1 51.5 20.5 22.1 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 19.9 21.7 20.0 0.0 49.7 48.5 20.3 21.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 23.0 22.8 19.5 0.5 55.3 53.3 20.8 22.3 23.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 20.0 21.8 20.8 0.0 49.7 48.6 20.4 21.8 23.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 20.4 22.7 20.1 0.4 54.6 52.5 20.7 22.3 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 14.7 16.9 18.3 0.2 52.6 51.1 15.0 16.6 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 20.2 21.9 21.6 0.0 50.2 48.7 20.5 21.9 23.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------