***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-01.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 22.2 22.7 23.0 -0.6 39.8 41.1 22.3 23.3 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 22.4 22.9 23.0 -0.7 38.4 39.7 22.6 23.6 24.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.5 23.3 23.6 -0.3 44.5 44.7 22.7 23.6 24.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 15.2 16.8 21.5 0.2 54.2 52.0 15.5 16.5 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.0 22.0 -0.1 47.7 47.3 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 21.8 22.9 19.8 -0.2 46.8 47.1 22.1 23.1 24.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 22.1 22.5 22.9 -0.8 37.3 38.9 22.3 23.2 24.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.2 12.9 20.4 0.0 50.4 49.1 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.1 23.8 22.7 0.0 50.7 49.4 22.8 23.7 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 23.8 23.4 21.2 0.0 49.8 48.8 22.4 23.4 24.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.7 23.8 22.1 0.0 49.8 48.9 22.9 23.8 24.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 22.0 23.3 21.6 0.2 53.1 51.1 22.1 23.2 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 22.9 24.0 21.4 -0.2 47.4 47.5 23.2 24.2 25.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.0 23.3 22.0 -0.3 43.9 44.1 22.6 23.6 24.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 22.9 24.3 22.9 0.3 55.8 53.4 23.1 24.0 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 23.5 24.8 21.9 0.1 51.8 50.5 23.7 24.7 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 21.6 22.0 22.5 -0.9 36.2 37.6 21.8 22.8 23.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.0 22.6 20.5 0.0 49.5 48.5 21.7 22.6 23.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 22.2 22.9 23.3 -0.5 41.6 42.3 22.4 23.3 24.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 19.1 18.7 18.3 -0.1 48.6 47.3 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 22.7 23.5 23.1 -0.3 44.4 44.6 22.8 23.8 24.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 22.2 22.6 22.5 -0.9 35.2 36.8 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.4 23.7 -0.1 48.3 47.7 22.5 23.5 24.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 23.8 23.3 22.2 -0.1 49.0 48.1 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 22.4 22.9 21.6 -0.6 39.9 41.2 22.5 23.5 24.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 22.7 24.1 21.2 0.2 53.3 51.7 22.9 23.9 24.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.3 22.8 22.2 -0.7 38.6 40.2 22.5 23.4 24.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 22.9 24.4 22.2 0.4 56.2 53.5 23.1 24.1 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.5 17.9 19.6 -0.2 46.5 46.2 17.2 18.1 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 22.2 22.8 23.1 -0.7 39.4 40.7 22.4 23.4 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------