***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 8.8 10.1 10.9 88.6 62.5 52.9 2.6 6.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.6 8.8 75.0 57.6 47.3 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.3 8.9 73.5 56.9 48.4 3.0 6.4 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 15.5 12.4 8.1 62.7 52.0 43.8 6.1 11.6 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.5 9.6 8.4 67.4 54.8 46.2 4.6 8.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.8 9.8 8.6 66.0 53.5 45.4 4.3 8.6 15.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.7 9.9 83.6 60.7 50.0 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 21.4 17.1 9.3 64.0 52.4 44.8 7.7 15.6 27.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.3 9.0 8.3 66.2 54.2 46.3 4.1 7.9 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.0 8.7 9.1 62.2 51.6 44.1 4.1 8.1 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.6 8.9 7.6 63.3 52.7 43.5 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 13.1 10.8 8.2 66.2 53.9 45.1 4.9 9.5 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.1 7.7 61.2 53.3 43.9 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.9 10.7 10.2 69.0 54.7 45.7 4.3 8.9 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.5 7.2 65.8 55.3 41.7 2.4 5.3 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 10.6 9.1 7.8 65.2 54.2 44.9 3.7 7.8 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.5 9.6 80.3 59.1 48.6 3.3 7.4 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 9.0 10.0 61.8 50.5 43.7 4.5 8.9 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.1 10.2 8.7 72.7 56.5 46.4 3.6 7.8 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.0 13.6 10.9 65.0 51.8 44.1 6.8 12.8 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 8.8 8.5 8.8 73.6 57.0 48.6 3.6 6.9 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.4 9.5 77.7 58.3 47.2 4.6 8.7 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.9 9.0 72.0 55.7 45.5 2.7 6.2 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 11.6 9.4 8.8 64.0 52.4 44.6 3.9 8.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.0 13.2 12.7 101.0 66.1 55.2 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.2 7.2 64.5 53.7 42.3 3.3 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.0 12.1 12.6 100.1 65.8 55.4 3.0 6.7 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.4 7.1 57.8 51.0 42.0 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.7 15.5 10.0 61.2 50.1 43.2 8.4 15.5 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.4 9.0 76.4 58.3 48.6 3.1 6.8 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------