***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 5.0 17.9 12.1 106.8 67.7 50.3 4.8 9.7 17.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.6 16.9 12.8 115.8 69.8 52.7 4.5 8.7 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.4 16.7 12.5 117.4 70.1 53.3 3.5 7.7 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 13.4 10.0 94.5 64.1 49.3 3.9 8.1 14.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.1 14.1 10.4 107.0 67.5 48.3 3.6 7.6 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.9 10.4 88.8 61.1 44.8 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.3 15.8 12.3 111.2 68.9 52.5 3.9 8.0 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.2 23.3 13.2 117.1 69.6 48.8 7.0 12.7 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.9 14.1 11.4 113.2 68.9 48.0 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.5 17.0 13.6 120.7 70.8 50.3 5.2 9.3 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.7 12.9 11.3 109.6 67.6 47.5 3.5 7.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.9 12.9 11.2 108.8 67.4 47.3 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 9.1 11.5 10.7 106.5 67.2 49.1 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 19.5 14.4 105.9 66.2 50.9 4.7 10.5 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 7.3 8.3 9.5 88.9 63.4 47.7 2.6 5.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.8 9.9 98.1 64.3 46.8 3.4 6.6 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.4 17.3 12.6 119.5 70.6 52.1 4.1 8.4 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 6.9 21.0 14.0 112.8 68.5 49.2 6.5 12.0 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.8 16.8 13.2 119.2 70.6 53.2 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.3 22.8 15.6 115.6 69.0 51.7 8.2 13.7 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 5.4 16.7 11.5 108.2 67.6 49.3 4.8 9.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.8 19.0 14.2 127.0 72.5 53.7 3.5 7.8 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.7 15.0 12.9 115.6 69.7 52.2 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.0 19.1 13.6 111.8 68.3 51.3 4.4 9.7 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.3 15.9 11.8 97.2 64.6 50.4 4.6 9.5 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 2.8 9.5 9.8 90.5 61.5 43.5 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.8 18.9 13.4 108.0 67.9 53.2 3.8 9.1 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.2 8.6 8.6 86.7 62.3 46.5 2.8 5.7 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.8 25.9 15.1 111.7 67.8 50.6 8.0 15.0 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.8 16.3 12.9 114.4 69.4 53.4 4.3 8.6 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------