***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.09.2017.-24.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.7 10.3 87.8 61.1 47.2 3.3 6.5 11.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.8 12.7 12.6 116.2 69.6 50.6 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.8 12.4 11.5 95.1 63.3 48.1 4.6 8.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.3 10.7 11.9 95.1 64.0 44.7 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.4 7.7 10.7 91.8 63.0 45.0 2.2 4.8 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.7 11.3 14.5 115.2 69.6 50.4 3.6 6.4 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.0 12.8 12.3 111.0 68.2 50.0 3.7 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.6 13.2 99.5 64.6 48.0 3.6 7.9 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.1 9.0 10.9 89.2 61.9 45.9 2.7 5.7 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.4 12.8 93.7 62.9 47.4 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.6 8.4 10.5 92.6 63.1 44.2 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.9 8.7 11.5 102.0 65.9 47.2 2.9 5.3 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.4 11.1 11.9 102.2 66.5 47.2 3.3 6.4 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.6 15.8 14.3 98.0 64.0 50.1 4.8 9.7 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.2 9.7 11.6 101.4 66.6 43.3 2.1 4.9 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.4 7.8 11.0 96.0 64.4 43.6 2.5 4.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.4 11.3 12.9 116.8 70.0 50.5 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.4 14.5 97.9 63.7 51.0 3.2 7.3 13.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.6 12.5 12.3 112.0 68.3 50.3 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 10.6 14.0 16.8 104.9 66.2 53.0 3.2 7.3 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 12.6 10.8 91.4 62.6 47.5 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.0 13.1 13.8 120.4 70.8 51.7 3.6 6.8 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.3 12.3 11.7 102.2 65.4 49.2 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.0 13.8 13.2 94.6 62.9 49.6 4.3 8.8 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.8 10.3 11.9 96.2 64.2 48.7 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 9.8 10.9 94.6 64.6 46.3 3.0 6.0 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.6 11.7 95.6 63.7 48.8 3.1 6.1 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 2.3 8.3 11.4 96.4 64.7 43.4 2.3 4.8 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.4 20.0 15.3 99.8 64.2 51.8 5.5 11.7 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 2.7 10.2 12.6 112.4 68.5 50.3 2.5 5.3 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------